Upside limited to 2%.
Another touch on the upper line would be too obvious/perfect.
If a touch was to happen, it would be probably a trap and it would go higher.
At P/E of 20, there no real reason to have this asymptotic rally and the local data is not supporting it.
Conclusion:
- it may wise to factor non multi completion to the top line.
- If SP500 manages to close 2040, it may open down.
- If it opens down, there are 2 targets:
(1) 1900ish
(2) 1700ish
Adverse scenario:
SP500 reaches 2150 but is very likely to come back here.
Strategy:
short 30% here at 2107
short 30% at 2150 and remove 30% at 2128...etc...
Time Trading
Once the move down is launched (that requires a close below 2040 in weekly), count 4 weeks from the top.
July07 correction: 4 weeks
Aug11 crash: 4 weeks.
