S&P 500 / US Markets observation | Revised target hit
ที่อัปเดต:
Waiting for manipulators to break the ath. From there on out, I'm looking to see if it's a fakeout to get one more corrective move before resumption of the bull for another 1 year and 3 quarters. Confirmation on a monthly close above previous ath.
US market should have gone down a lot more given all the statistics, but it seems it got a huge injection in buybacks, while asian markets got trillion of dollars being pumped from central banks...
Yes, people are right in their observations that it should have gone down by now and that is most likely the reason it's going up to screw them up, take their money and then going down, since imperfect man playing as god over others, the energy returned will be 10-fold,
as cause has effect, as witnesses per negative yield curve across the entire west, this comes back later on in the following years when most people have forgot about it with a hell candle open, as usual.
Anywho, back on topic. My revised target from last month has made target, I've closed 50% of my long and the rest with a stop in profit and let the rest ride to see if ath going to be breached and entire world believing the narratives that come,
for example how Trump is the best, etc. and bears crying about manipulation as if they were gold- and silverbug hodlers. Yeah, well, we all know markets are manipulated up and down, just take advantage of it and play the game.
If you wanna see how I flipped positions (reason, targets and projection) and how it played out and bounced on exact targets, then check my updates in the previous idea (link below).
The financial markets and global economics have an expiration date and that is to my calculations 14 January 2021. If you think every major event in history was random, then you must believe that you have more chance in winning the jackpot and probably believe in the big bang. In fact, it's well documented and known for centuries how planetary alignments and sun activity affect human thought and action, that is, if you know everything is energy and vibrates. If you think all the lower level things, like algos to forecast regression, sentiment, vwap, etc. from institutions are complex, than you have seen nothing yet behind the veil and JP Morgan knows this very well, since there is a famous quote around him from the man himself who knows what I'm talking about here.
So you might think, this is bullish for crypto. NO, it could mean the very end of crypto. Why? Because crypto (speculation, no measurable value, no use case) is one giant fiat extraction scheme with estimated fiat in the system less than 8% and prices are moved by fakemoney (tether) and every pump gets sold in fiat. But more importantly, what do controllers/governments/enforcement agencies do when they need money? That's right, they go to war, most of the time invading other countries, but since the world gets more globalized, the bigger enemy is man himself, i.e. waging war against it's own citizens. That can be taxes, etc. So what do people do when they need money? They gonna sell that shit to make sure they can eat the next day. I've been warning goldbugs that when there is recession, it's best to buy US DOLLARS, but they didn't listen and drank the koolaid that gold would go to 5k and 10k. What happened? Gold dumped with stocks, oil and housing, while USD went UP. Now you got the same newbies claiming the USD gonna collapse, give me a break. the USD will be the last currency to stand.
I might make update on crypto later today or this week when I feel to it, but needless to say, I feel lonely as a bear, since even the most bearish people turned bullish and don't see current price action for what it is. But, I would NOT short it at this time either. This trap can go to 5850 and a break of 5870 can mean 6470-6500 prices again. There were 2 options for bitcoin at the time before the breakout:
1) Take liquidity at 2k zone (since the 3k pool shifted down over time);
2) Pump the price on empty fiat books and create bullshit narratives hoping new money comes in at premium.
#2 happened using 440 million TETHERS. The transactions went unnoticed by me, since they used small increments this time, bypassing scanners. The reason I say not to short this (yet), is because yesterday they created another 110 million tethers out of the blue, which can be injected for the next pump and bullish momentum is still strong. Joe fomos are rewarded bigly, yet again, only in crypto. As you can see from my last crypto idea from months ago and if you talked with me last few months, you know exactly where I would buy and bought all in advance (3.2-3.3k when everybody said lower prices), shorted (2x the top of lower TR) and closed (at the exact bottom before the upmove happened long time ago) and reshorted 4.2k before the pump, hedged with spot buys (see chart), stopped out on shorts and manually scalped 2x 1h to breakeven the last shorts. I've explained with updates why I hedge vs stopping out or flipping positions, since I found it the most profitable strategy for swing trades and bigger positions. I don't have positions at the moment, although I do own some bitcoin and two shitcoins now and since the void is so big now, I can put all with a stop in profit. I do decide to cash out if they decide to pump above 6k, but if downtrade continues before end of May, I will stay here to trade. I've no intention to get robbed by exchanges when I know what they're doing right now selling their inventory on each bear rally. If not, well, they might exitscam and leave you with $0 and exchanges are another reason why bitcoin might hit $80 when a global crises happens, because they're a source of money for governments, hackers and organized crime.
It's fine to buy bitcoin as a hedge against a local currency, like the Venezuelan bolivar, but when it's global, this does not count anymore. Why? Because what is the value compared against? That's right, the USD... you can smell bullshitters in crypto from far away and most people are just that. The only excuse they will have left when it's collapsing is "hodl, don't compare vs usd". You wanna bet bitcoin going to be used in a global meltdown to buy bread when you can't even pay electricity or phone bills? Even if that is the case and people know you own crypto, the changes for you being robbed or killed has to be taken in to consideration of how smart you are posting your personal details online or telling others about how much crypto you own. That's the price you pay when you don't value privacy, an integral part of individual freedom. Bearish on human intelligence.
I do have 2 main targets with a $50 spread for bitcoin, if you follow me, you know exactly where they are and how I derived those targets from a long term outlook, backed by data and applied regression formulas. One of them is going to be hit before calling this bear market over, preferably both, which means a new low. I definitely would be bullish after tether and binance fiasco is resolved, because a global meltdown doesn't have to happen, since those (wo)men are playing as gods and going against nature, it can always take longer, which it did, since doomsday sayers were betting for a collapse which didn't come, which would mean you didn't profit or you lost money.
It has come to my attention that nobody gets my updates, that's not my fault, you have to check yourself if the system is broken, if you'd cared you'd have known anyway and those people I trade with already know my positions anyway and it's way more than I post online before it happens.
US market should have gone down a lot more given all the statistics, but it seems it got a huge injection in buybacks, while asian markets got trillion of dollars being pumped from central banks...
Yes, people are right in their observations that it should have gone down by now and that is most likely the reason it's going up to screw them up, take their money and then going down, since imperfect man playing as god over others, the energy returned will be 10-fold,
as cause has effect, as witnesses per negative yield curve across the entire west, this comes back later on in the following years when most people have forgot about it with a hell candle open, as usual.
Anywho, back on topic. My revised target from last month has made target, I've closed 50% of my long and the rest with a stop in profit and let the rest ride to see if ath going to be breached and entire world believing the narratives that come,
for example how Trump is the best, etc. and bears crying about manipulation as if they were gold- and silverbug hodlers. Yeah, well, we all know markets are manipulated up and down, just take advantage of it and play the game.
If you wanna see how I flipped positions (reason, targets and projection) and how it played out and bounced on exact targets, then check my updates in the previous idea (link below).
The financial markets and global economics have an expiration date and that is to my calculations 14 January 2021. If you think every major event in history was random, then you must believe that you have more chance in winning the jackpot and probably believe in the big bang. In fact, it's well documented and known for centuries how planetary alignments and sun activity affect human thought and action, that is, if you know everything is energy and vibrates. If you think all the lower level things, like algos to forecast regression, sentiment, vwap, etc. from institutions are complex, than you have seen nothing yet behind the veil and JP Morgan knows this very well, since there is a famous quote around him from the man himself who knows what I'm talking about here.
So you might think, this is bullish for crypto. NO, it could mean the very end of crypto. Why? Because crypto (speculation, no measurable value, no use case) is one giant fiat extraction scheme with estimated fiat in the system less than 8% and prices are moved by fakemoney (tether) and every pump gets sold in fiat. But more importantly, what do controllers/governments/enforcement agencies do when they need money? That's right, they go to war, most of the time invading other countries, but since the world gets more globalized, the bigger enemy is man himself, i.e. waging war against it's own citizens. That can be taxes, etc. So what do people do when they need money? They gonna sell that shit to make sure they can eat the next day. I've been warning goldbugs that when there is recession, it's best to buy US DOLLARS, but they didn't listen and drank the koolaid that gold would go to 5k and 10k. What happened? Gold dumped with stocks, oil and housing, while USD went UP. Now you got the same newbies claiming the USD gonna collapse, give me a break. the USD will be the last currency to stand.
I might make update on crypto later today or this week when I feel to it, but needless to say, I feel lonely as a bear, since even the most bearish people turned bullish and don't see current price action for what it is. But, I would NOT short it at this time either. This trap can go to 5850 and a break of 5870 can mean 6470-6500 prices again. There were 2 options for bitcoin at the time before the breakout:
1) Take liquidity at 2k zone (since the 3k pool shifted down over time);
2) Pump the price on empty fiat books and create bullshit narratives hoping new money comes in at premium.
#2 happened using 440 million TETHERS. The transactions went unnoticed by me, since they used small increments this time, bypassing scanners. The reason I say not to short this (yet), is because yesterday they created another 110 million tethers out of the blue, which can be injected for the next pump and bullish momentum is still strong. Joe fomos are rewarded bigly, yet again, only in crypto. As you can see from my last crypto idea from months ago and if you talked with me last few months, you know exactly where I would buy and bought all in advance (3.2-3.3k when everybody said lower prices), shorted (2x the top of lower TR) and closed (at the exact bottom before the upmove happened long time ago) and reshorted 4.2k before the pump, hedged with spot buys (see chart), stopped out on shorts and manually scalped 2x 1h to breakeven the last shorts. I've explained with updates why I hedge vs stopping out or flipping positions, since I found it the most profitable strategy for swing trades and bigger positions. I don't have positions at the moment, although I do own some bitcoin and two shitcoins now and since the void is so big now, I can put all with a stop in profit. I do decide to cash out if they decide to pump above 6k, but if downtrade continues before end of May, I will stay here to trade. I've no intention to get robbed by exchanges when I know what they're doing right now selling their inventory on each bear rally. If not, well, they might exitscam and leave you with $0 and exchanges are another reason why bitcoin might hit $80 when a global crises happens, because they're a source of money for governments, hackers and organized crime.
It's fine to buy bitcoin as a hedge against a local currency, like the Venezuelan bolivar, but when it's global, this does not count anymore. Why? Because what is the value compared against? That's right, the USD... you can smell bullshitters in crypto from far away and most people are just that. The only excuse they will have left when it's collapsing is "hodl, don't compare vs usd". You wanna bet bitcoin going to be used in a global meltdown to buy bread when you can't even pay electricity or phone bills? Even if that is the case and people know you own crypto, the changes for you being robbed or killed has to be taken in to consideration of how smart you are posting your personal details online or telling others about how much crypto you own. That's the price you pay when you don't value privacy, an integral part of individual freedom. Bearish on human intelligence.
I do have 2 main targets with a $50 spread for bitcoin, if you follow me, you know exactly where they are and how I derived those targets from a long term outlook, backed by data and applied regression formulas. One of them is going to be hit before calling this bear market over, preferably both, which means a new low. I definitely would be bullish after tether and binance fiasco is resolved, because a global meltdown doesn't have to happen, since those (wo)men are playing as gods and going against nature, it can always take longer, which it did, since doomsday sayers were betting for a collapse which didn't come, which would mean you didn't profit or you lost money.
It has come to my attention that nobody gets my updates, that's not my fault, you have to check yourself if the system is broken, if you'd cared you'd have known anyway and those people I trade with already know my positions anyway and it's way more than I post online before it happens.
บันทึกช่วยจำ
บันทึกช่วยจำ
So Tradingview changed their policy not to provide SPX data feed anymore to any account (yes, this includes pro paid accounts as well, I've checked it myself) that isn't going to pay the $4 for only this ticker as per exchange regulations. I can link screenshots from my mt4 or saxo trading platform, but I don't think it's appreciated, so I won't.My entire drawings and calculations are lost, so I quickly screenshotted this "logged out" as per their rules to acquire the data. We're close to the ath (~$1 shy) as expected. Now enjoy this month's closing on the coming opening :)
You already know where the liquidity is, don't you? :) Where it is going to end when it's going to run is anybody's guess of course, so I would be very careful if you wanna short this, this requires a stop sell instead of limit if you wanna take the risk gambling on a fakeout. Not worth it imho, let the structure form first to give clues, as shorting indices are one of the hardest things to do in trading and in general not recommended, but where is the fun without challenge, right? :)
บันทึกช่วยจำ
Since I lost my drawings I'm using my own idea to verify the trend by zooming in (dragging the horizontal and vertical columns). As you can see, it kept retesting resistance becoming support all the way in to the red box. All that is resting is "observation" for me for now, so to be continued... It's 4/month btw.ปิดการเทรด: ถึงเป้าหมายการทำกำไร
New ATH :) I hope bears didn't lose too much shorting all the way up. Pure sentiment manipulation since the bounce accelerated by both MSM and alternative media all over the world with doomsday scenarios near the exact bottom. Waiting to see if a new trade setup presents on this one.บันทึกช่วยจำ
Looks like it wanna pop to ~3k in June. Waiting for entry, not sure if it will get another leg down (not expecting doomsday).ปิดการเทรด: ถึงเป้าหมายการทำกำไร
So it indeed did pop the 3k big figure shortly after. Have to get back in the market after my summer break to get up to date and get the feeling back.Today it took quite a hit, but it's still in that compressive trading range at the top. It also seems way overblown regarding price vs time. Not trading it yet.
คำจำกัดสิทธิ์ความรับผิดชอบ
ข้อมูลและบทความไม่ได้มีวัตถุประสงค์เพื่อก่อให้เกิดกิจกรรมทางการเงิน, การลงทุน, การซื้อขาย, ข้อเสนอแนะ หรือคำแนะนำประเภทอื่น ๆ ที่ให้หรือรับรองโดย TradingView อ่านเพิ่มเติมที่ ข้อกำหนดการใช้งาน