SPX - end of year rally?

25 พ.ย. 2018

I find stock market indexes very difficult to read since the top, so I did some digging. First of all, market is very much fractured, sector wise and market cap wise. Smaller stocks and broader indexes have much clearer counts - impulse down is much clearer and easier to count, and I will publish them in separate posts. Some sectors are clearly impulsing down, some are holding pretty well (healthcare, staples and utilities), and some are blurred. Unfortunately, 10 posts a day is not enough to illustrate everything, but I will stick with essential stuff.

This count is my best guess when SPX is concerned, important primarily because ES is the most liquid stocks trading vehicle. It is very unusual for stocks to go down past Thanksgiving, so I (as everybody else apparently!) am expecting a year end rally. B of a supposed flat (or double three) correction is not over yet. a=c of B is right around 2600 support area, so it should end soon, and by soon I mean in next two or three days at most. If it continues falling, possibly another impulse is forming, and year end rally could take form of wave 2 of that impulse, which is a possibility that should not be overlooked.

Wait for reversal before going long, as anticipating to eagerly could be dangerous!