WHAT IS IT
Modelling previous moves of the S&P500 Recession & Non-recession moves, we can create a model for 2 scenarios:
Non-recession Bull *Cyan*
Recession Bear *Orange*

HOW TO USE IT
Bear markets have never ended before the start of recessions, so a recession would likely mean new lows in the market indexes. The stock market tends to lead the economy out of a recession, too, by an average of four months. Absent a financial crisis, the recession should be shorter than recent cases. The orange line in the chart below shows the average performance of the S&P 500 nine months before the end of a recession bear to three months after, which would align with a 9/30/2023 recession end date.

The average recession bear decline is 34.6%, but a milder recession could equate to a smaller-than-average drop. To date, the 2022 decline is in line with the average non-recession bear. The market took the Fed’s threat to push the economy into recession seriously, so for now, the policy mistake scenario is in play.
Bearish PatternsBullish PatternsCryptocurrencyFundamental AnalysisHarmonic Patternsmarketrecessionsp500indexStocksTrend Analysis

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