Weekly Prediction 9-13 May SPX/ES Iron Condor

8 พ.ค. 2022

SPX
9 - 13 May
The weekly VIX -> Volatility Index for S&P 500 index
VIX = 30.2
In this we have to standard it for weekly session
30.2 / sqrt(52-> 52 weeks in a year) = 4.19%
My historical product is telling me with 1.5x coficient that the expected movement for this week
E Volatility = 31.69 / sqrt(52) = 4.39%

With this data, from my calculations, when EV > VIX, there were a 89% chance that the market
stay within the bottom and top created with the ranged from the E Vol

So for next week this range for us is going to be
TOP - 4305
BOT - 3942

Lets look into an iron condor oppotunity for trading:
4300Call Sell - 4325Call Buy
3950Put sell - 3925 Put buy
This is giving us at the current moment a 0.29 expectancy
So taking into account from 1166 weekly candles, that 89% of the times the market stay within our top/bot channel,
Our profit margin would be 89% * 0.29 - 11%*1 = 14.81 ROI after 100 trades