SPX Intraday Bear Flag: In CD Leg of Bullish Butterfly

3 ต.ค. 2019

See my related post on SPY. It's a Butterfly pattern. Current price is retesting the breakdown TL. I am short this index at 2900.

The wedge grows narrow, rapidly tightening. Break imminent IMO. Won't be a good time to buy long until Butterfly completes.

Expected termination of CD Leg around 2720-2740, by Monday 28 October. Go long after price break completes for best R/R.

Final Bull wave should carry SPX above 3100-3150 at the 1.618 Fibo extension. It will be a Fifth Primary of the Fifth supercycle.

Not trading advice; just another wild idea; trade at your own rick! GLTA!

8 ต.ค. 2019

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FYI folks closed the position waiting for re-entry. Any gap down stands chance of getting filled and this was a big one, driven by 'trade fears' and global 'fake news', most of which is perpetrated by The Donald. SO, likely to get at least some retracement. I bought some AMD & GE in covered calls while we wait. Not ready to buy calls just yet but it was time to close out some puts for ~30% gains. Not bad for a day's work!

See my related post on Harmonic Theory. Still not sure if that will pan out or whether we get bounce off the lower TL back into triangle. It is still a Bull Market for the time being and I still expect higher prices EOY, but it's gonna be a rocky road IMO. Very chancy here!

For this particular idea; notice we are trading just above the rising TL of bottom channel; this COULD be a retest of lows and a higher move MIGHT be around the corner, or at least an upper channel test if it becomes range-bound. Nothing is certain; take what you can get when you can get it!

8 ต.ค. 2019

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See my related posts on DJIA and SPX; IMO it's going to break down soon.
Positions re-established in QQQ, IWM, SPY, DIA, 10 contracts each in bear spreads;

Added 5 more contracts to each position; now in 45 Nov puts on 4 major indices.
Moved down so quick I had to roll some of the short legs on Bear spreads, lol.
Always do that for a credit, never need take a loss on those short contracts!

IMO a serious correction can start very soon; now rumors circulating that trade talks have stalled before they started. China is getting irked and hostile, Trump accuses them of human rights violation, they ban our footballers, and tariffs kickoff next Tuesday. IMO if Trump gets pissed at them he will jack tariffs more and blow up the whole mess. A deal now seems a remote possibility at best IMO.

Today Powell told us "THIS IS DEFINITELY NOT QE!" repeatedly. So no more rate cuts, as expected. Hold inflation near 2% and stay the course, he said.
The downtrend course, LOL. Gone short again; GLTA!

9 ต.ค. 2019

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Reduced position to a 5 contract calendar spread on the technical pullback.

If China is ready to make a deal as they hinted today, then all short bets are off.

R/R is poor again; resting at TL support, strong bounce today; (+) news will explode it up into channel, stay cool, be safe!

10 ต.ค. 2019

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Closed all stops out waiting on news. R/R terrible; pure gambling now.
When direction is clear then bet on the trend IMO.

11 ต.ค. 2019

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OKAY! "Buy the Rumor, Sell the News"; I am short again and selling the news of a partial deal to trade soybeans and suspend 15 Oct tariffs. The terrific enthusiasm of past 3 days carries indexes to 100% retracement from 01 October prices; it is a Batwing formation. Last time we got this was in Nov/Dec 2018.

I doubt we get a severe decline just yet, but expect that huge AM gap to fill back down and likely test bottom TL again within a week.

Shorted QQQ; in Nov 192P spread against Oct 188P; SPY 300P spread vs Oct 295P; DIA 270P spread vs Oct 266P; and IWM Nov 152P sperad v Oct 148s.

So, $4 bear diagonal spreads trading next month vs this month's weeklies.

GLTA!

Update; Trade active: Added in post - market to all four positions now holding 25 each Nov puts on above indices, 100 ITM puts on position; these moved so fast I was forced to roll the short weeklies out to next series and down $3 so these are now $7 Bear Spreads. Have a great weekend all!

Comment: After the news release, it seems we got an exhaustion gap with a shooting star from open > close.

If we close the gap up with a gap down Monday in light holiday trade, it would give us the 'Abandoned Baby' Doji- extremely Bearish.

16 ต.ค. 2019

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Not behaving as expected. Seems like a push to retest ATH in progress. R/R lousy again; take what the market gives and be cautious:

Seems like bullish undertone persists. Advancers > Decliners; breadth firms up; IMO this beast wants to retest the ATH. Useless to hold shorts while it does this; but too risky to bet that it will. Sidelined again; stop lossed. Look for blowoff rally to re-enter. R/R poor again until we get a clear signal IMO.