A look at the S&P 500 Chart (weekly and daily charts)

ที่อัปเดต:

Will the orange 200 weekly SMA hold?
If the index dips below this historical support, it will mark the start of the next recession as it did in 2008.

Daily Chart:

บันทึกช่วยจำ

Historically, after plunging below the orange 200 weekly SMA (WMA), the index will attempt to try for a retest of the 200 WMA but fail, before dropping significantly lower.

บันทึกช่วยจำ

Also looking at the last chart above, the ichicloud on the weekly chart turned bearish, marking the start of the bear market.

Presently, the Ichicloud still remains bullish (for now).

บันทึกช่วยจำ

Possible target if the 200 weekly SMA fails to hold as support.

บันทึกช่วยจำ

i.e. the 50% Fib regtrace level which has confluence with a significant support level.

or maybe even the 61.8% Fib retrace level in a more severe recession or even a depression.

บันทึกช่วยจำ

However, we are (at the very least) now in a mini-recession:

A full blown recession/depression hasn’t been confirmed yet.

บันทึกช่วยจำ

I.e. The Index did not pierce below the 200 weekly MA (below) even though it did the 200 daily MA (above) in 2015; unlike in 2008 where it pierces below the 200 sMA on the weekly chart of the index.

บันทึกช่วยจำ

Apologies, accidentally posted the same daily chart again and TV lacks the simple option to delete accidental posting of updates within a set time limit sadly. :(
Here is the weekly chart just mentioned.

บันทึกช่วยจำ

Recession confirmed if this candle closes below the 200 weekly SMA. And it probably will.

PRISM Acceleration/Jerk ribbon continues to plunge lower.
Won't see a turnaround anytime soon.

บันทึกช่วยจำ

=======================
Fundamentally, the bubble have already gotten wayyy too big -- Obama, instead of fixing the underlying problem, allowed the issue to continue by bailing out the broken banking system (taking tax payer's money to feed the welfare system for the big corporations and the mega wealthy -- where the CEOs and corporate executives had continued to shamelessly pay themselves massive bonuses and pay-cheques after collapsing the economy, while cutting jobs and pay for the middle class staffs; and after that, Trump continue to feed the bubble into the monstrosity it is today (with debt that needs to be paid back sooner or later).

Trumps's answer to the crazy US debt? "Easy we can just print more money".

บันทึกช่วยจำ

Same story with the DJI

บันทึกช่วยจำ

Market structure destroyed by massive (black swan) fundamental move. TA will not work anymore, for now, until the structure resets -- i.e. need to wait for the market to settle down and stabilize at the new level (whichever it may be), then a new market structure can emerge for TA.

Might fall even deeper into a full blown depression, some analysts were saying.

"Blood on the streets.."

บันทึกช่วยจำ

50/200 SMA Death Cross on the Daily Chart incoming.

บันทึกช่วยจำ

Fib retrace levels and support to monitor:

บันทึกช่วยจำ

cybernetwork

คำจำกัดสิทธิ์ความรับผิดชอบ

ข้อมูลและบทความไม่ได้มีวัตถุประสงค์เพื่อก่อให้เกิดกิจกรรมทางการเงิน, การลงทุน, การซื้อขาย, ข้อเสนอแนะ หรือคำแนะนำประเภทอื่น ๆ ที่ให้หรือรับรองโดย TradingView อ่านเพิ่มเติมที่ ข้อกำหนดการใช้งาน