SPX Conditional Path to 2500 Dec 2016
ที่อัปเดต:
IMHO, this is the best case for the market (2500). Path is highly conditional but good mental framework
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If in fact SPX is Big Top then should be followed by 2/3 year bear cycle with targets 1800 as 61.8% FIB retrace and 1580 as 50% retrace which essentially tests the big 2000/2007 breakout levels (35% decline). Reasonableบันทึกช่วยจำ
If i am to be correct, then this 2009 Bull market (which could be Wave 1 of higher degree itself) will have compounded at 14.5% pa. Not bad considering that The Great Bull market of Reagan/Clinton compounded at c.16% 1982-2000.บันทึกช่วยจำ
On the very short term levels to consider are between 2280s and 2305, so next 2 %. If we reach 2305 within the next few weeks and there is a reversal there, the decline could be very large like 10%. My other indicators are setting up for that but is early still. In this case, the Wave 2 on the conditional path comes in 1Q17 not 3Q17บันทึกช่วยจำ
The more i think about it, the more i think that in the ensuing bear cycle which most likely to be 3 instead of 2 years, SPX may wipe out all that was made since the No Taper statement from BB. I think that was a game changer in late 2013. So 1600s are fair game or 35% from 2500บันทึกช่วยจำ
Ok, tomorrow is FED meeting announcement, as we are entering the critical levels of 2280s where i have put resistanceบันทึกช่วยจำ
The scenario where the Wave 2 down is in 1Q17 not 3Q17 as in the path above looks more probable as long as this continues to form as a LD Wave 1.Which no higher than 2286 to be followed by a sharp Wave 2. I guess we should know pretty soonบันทึกช่วยจำ
This one appears to be the Bearish Scenario then assuming Tactical Top in March before large correction
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