Silver is a very important commodity, in fact it is even more useful that Gold. As only about 10% of produced Gold is used in various manufacturing, rest 90% goes for jewelry and just as safe haven, where Silver's 50% goes for manufacturing as an example your touch-screens, solar energy and medical sectors... But I'm not here to predict future of humanity :)
Key things to note before analysis:
- Top countries producing silver are Mexico, China, Peru, Russia, Australia, etc. Take into account their relationships with US, tariffs, their currencies vs USD. AUD/USD for instance, started to rebound already and has a huge way up to go. USD even if strong (as always) may strengthen a bit more, but has to go for correction anytime very soon.
- Commodity market, for ex. Gold have shown reversal. Now Gold is a "Buy on dips" for majority and by far not many want to trade against its Bullish trend.
- Assuming the average production price globally is $11.74 price still can go down, despite already some smaller producers are selling for a cheaper price (as their production cost is around $15). That is ok(ish) because the demand has lowered during last 2 years. But, India (which is major buyer) has increased its demand this year.
- Demand will keep rising for Silver, but producers will definitely not want to increase production. For example Jewelry demand has already risen. "Why would I buy expensive gold jewelry during these crisis times. I want to save. Also silver is useful for health, it kills one-cell bacteria..." ;)
- If commodity currencies rise, commodities prices will rise. Duh?!
Ok, now the chart:
Please pay attention to corrections, how they are broken and movements inside the channels. I have marked with red arrows price action which is less likely to happen and blue arrows show most likely to happen. So, I am expecting the price to test $16 latest by Feb 2019 and reach around $20.30 by April. The buy zone is reached for me and will SL at around key levels. If $13.58 is broken, I will look to start adding more at around $12 So this is a longer term trade. Please comment, share and like.
Key things to note before analysis:
- Top countries producing silver are Mexico, China, Peru, Russia, Australia, etc. Take into account their relationships with US, tariffs, their currencies vs USD. AUD/USD for instance, started to rebound already and has a huge way up to go. USD even if strong (as always) may strengthen a bit more, but has to go for correction anytime very soon.
- Commodity market, for ex. Gold have shown reversal. Now Gold is a "Buy on dips" for majority and by far not many want to trade against its Bullish trend.
- Assuming the average production price globally is $11.74 price still can go down, despite already some smaller producers are selling for a cheaper price (as their production cost is around $15). That is ok(ish) because the demand has lowered during last 2 years. But, India (which is major buyer) has increased its demand this year.
- Demand will keep rising for Silver, but producers will definitely not want to increase production. For example Jewelry demand has already risen. "Why would I buy expensive gold jewelry during these crisis times. I want to save. Also silver is useful for health, it kills one-cell bacteria..." ;)
- If commodity currencies rise, commodities prices will rise. Duh?!
Ok, now the chart:
Please pay attention to corrections, how they are broken and movements inside the channels. I have marked with red arrows price action which is less likely to happen and blue arrows show most likely to happen. So, I am expecting the price to test $16 latest by Feb 2019 and reach around $20.30 by April. The buy zone is reached for me and will SL at around key levels. If $13.58 is broken, I will look to start adding more at around $12 So this is a longer term trade. Please comment, share and like.
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