5/8/24 - $shop - need a better entry... still, unfort. careful.

5/8/24 - vrockstar - would like to buy it, could be a trade to the mid/ high 60s fam, but likely won't stick and act as exit liquidity for guys needing to size manage. what's more likely if you saw other ecomm/ retail, lulu comes to mind, is a gamma drag thru the day all else equal, all pumps being sold. the math here is "expensive" we all know it. you know it, i know it. that's fine for a great biz, but the 2Q guide is the thorn until we get some either a. macro catalyst/ e.g. rates- consumer or b. risk bid that's not just mag 7 or c. lower stock price and perhaps d. another print - so at earliest in this case leading into 2Q print, maybe a month before as we size up the 3Q guide. EVEN if we assume a stock down 35%... and on generous FCF estimates, perhaps 2 bn this yr? you'd STILL be hardly pushing 3% yield. BTW... that's the buy. probably in the mid $50s. any risk off generally/ in the Q's would threaten to gap fill this in the $48 zone from last Nov. I'd give that a 30% probability today, but under $55... the odds are probably >50%. unfortunately i don't think you can bid this with any high degree of confidence. set your triggers lower and we can find a better entry.