SG10Y Govt Bond and SPY relationship Part V

10 พ.ค. 2023

Conditions appear to be shifting really quickly... just a few days ago, it appeared that the SG10Y Govt Bond was going to break a low and go further down, sending the correlated S&P500 (and other indexes rallying up. BUT, it brooke down and recovered very quickly. NOW, it appears to be ready to break UP and out of the downtrend line. This has happened before, including the indication of the MACD (shown here this time), where there is also a bullish divergence and just now, a crossover of the MACD on the Signal line.

Therefore, expecting a repeat of early Feb 2023, and IF this is the case, then the corresponding SPY action would be a lower high and a breakdown (red dotted arrow projects the SPY (blue line).

Watch the next 5 trading days... critical clues will be revealed.

Btw, if this scenario is played out, then the USD should concomitantly be bearish, Gold bullish, Crude bearish for the most part, etc.
Also... for those who are like keen to get the SG bonds, the yields should be rising, not dropping, so no need to rush. Have a good idea of what might happen (don't listen wholesale to those who want to get you to buy stuff), then make a plan to have that idea happen.

So far, five parts to this story, and so far it is holding the correlation as expected.

19 พ.ค. 2023

บันทึกช่วยจำ

JUST broke out! So, expecting some downside...