ROKU May 16th, 2019 - Losing Steam ?

16 พ.ค. 2019

This is currently how I believe ROKU is moving, following an elliott wave pattern but is currently stuck below the 0.786 fib(extension from start of wave 2 to end of wave 3, to bottom of wave 4.) If $86 is to be the peak, then this should be where wave 5 ends and we should be seeing a retracement in the near future.
Eyeing ROKU for a while now, they seem to have been doing really well due to a recent strong earnings report. This past week, despite trade war news, ROKU itself has been struggling to choose a direction. We are currently sitting right below the 0.786 fib and have been struggling to close above it since May 9th. We did see a couple of fake breakouts but no severe break/drop - still waiting on a big volume breakout for either direction to get a more clear picture of where this stock is headed. Based on the 3HR, we see a bearish crossover on the MACD as well as a break below 70 on RSI. We also see that 9MA has a support at ~$81.82 so unless we can close below this, we will not be able to set a price target of $77.42(0.618 fib) anytime soon.

The 4HR timeframe on ROKU has not had any clear indications that will help us to decide a direction either, but we should take notice of the current candlestick below $82.81, the 9MA. If we stay below this, should be a strong indication that we can close below the 9MA and aim to retest fib levels, or even the 26MA. STOCH RSI also crossed bearish once again so we should wait for a confirmation of a drop below 50 + RSI dropping below 70 to figure out if this stock has really become bearish or not.

The 1D timeframe on ROKU shows that the current 9MA and 26MA are far below the current price, with 9MA at $74.46 and 26MA at $70.69. STOCH RSI has crossed bearish and broken below the 70 and we should be waiting to see if RSI breaks below 70.


My position: ROKU $77 Puts for 5/24 - 7 contracts at $1.07 cost avg - $749 total , current price: $82.51
Notes: Currently down 29% (~$220) but I will be selling my contracts if by the end of this week, ROKU does not give a clearer indication of a possible downward move.

If you have any questions, comments, or concerns, feel free to leave them in the comments below and I'll get back to you

Rocky

21 พ.ค. 2019

บันทึก

Sold contracts at a 50% loss (roughly $375) - Seems we broke $86 resistance