Variables in Favor: +2 rate cuts probabilities now above the 0 rate cuts. 3 rate cuts 100% increase. Reversal in trend from Jan 13 +TLT has breakout the downtrend coming from DEC, correlated too with the US10Y failing to break 2024 Highs. +PPI lower than expected 0.2 vs 0.4 m/m +CPI 2.9 as expected / Core lower 0.2 vs 0.3 +Risk On Assets Turning, Total2 ( Crypto marketcap excludingBTC) is up 15% from Jan 13 +Risky sectors outperfoming ARKK. +Vix -30% from Jan 13 +DT possesion on Monday 20
Techinal variables: + Failed breakdonw in market indexes levels Cat 8-9 + RSI at 30 in the 4h plus cross of the MA, positive. + Squeeze momentum to the downside over, near 0 +Reclaim above of the monthly vwap on QQQ-SPY
Still in look: +Downtrendline coming from DEC ATH, Market testing now +Retail sales tomorrow In my case because I'm long from yesterday it will be easier to hold into tomorrow, but for a position opened today I'm less sure. Because of the retail sales and the trendline, can be normal to have a pullback, and pick momentum on friday into monday.