At cusp of major flush down?

13 ม.ค. 2023

I believe the market is on the cusp of a major flush down, likely toward the 200MMA. For over half a year, we have been violently bouncing up in down within the critical support zone 10500-12500 created during the 2020 MMA rally, while the volatility index VIX seems to be dying a slow death. However, likely it will come back to life when most least expect it, as the Phoenix rises from the ashes. Time symmetry since the covid crash bottom has been breeched, because the length of a bear market seldom exceeds even half the duration of a bull market. This is very rare unless "it is still a bull market" or "it is a bear market of much greater degree than we think." For example, if the degree of this bear market is greater than that of the GFC, then bull-bear time symmetry would line up with that 20 year period. In that case, the monthly bull-bear durations of each wave would form symmety up until the moment of "the crash". As we can see in this chart, so far this theory is holding since the Nov 2021 peak.

2M down + 2M up
2M down + 2M up
3M down + 3M up
3M down + 3M up

Next could be the dreaded large wave of 5-6M down...

We shall see. GL.