Nasdaq 100 E-mini; +2036 pts. profit the last 14 days. TUTORIAL

12 ก.ย. 2020

What this is:
This is a Tutorial / compilation of my recent posts, from my TradingView page.
(All very recent as I have only started posting 2 weeks ago.)

Why this is:
a) - I am posting this "Tutorial" / Trade Analysis upon numerous - and very persistent :-) requests;
b) - I seldom trade the Nasdaq (or equities), simply because usually there is more money to be made elsewhere;
c) - In the following "stuff" all things are rather basic and self-evident;
d) - I am trading a single, Nasdaq E-mini Future (16k margin), in this case, via an Interactive Brokers' account;
e) - This is a very long post so read it at your own peril!

Let's get on with...NQ1!

12 ก.ย. 2020

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I) - So, what gave me the idea to even look at the Nasdaq, which I seldom trade?

- The Gold/Copper Ratio
This has an enduring and highly reliable correlation with equity indexes.
When this goes up, equities crumble and this has been wicking like crazy since July!!

I trade copper a lot! "Why?", you ask...
... Because:
A) It moves 2x as fast as the Nasdaq for 1/4 the price/margin - I.e. Speed & Leverage;
B) It's often traded by about the stupidest managed money in the Universe! (Just recall all the Billion Dollar copper blow-outs of the past 20+ years.)
It's like them showing up at one's door regularly, asking permission to dump a truck full of gold in one's back yard. ("Sure! Go ahead Mo-run")
... but I digress.

- Gold/S&P500 Ratio

Well, this isn't about to go down... And that's a fact! (Which means: Equities will have to.)

- Silver

I trade silver a lot, as well. Silver is "ultra-correlated" (0.83) with the Nasdaq, since what seems like forever. (It will end, though, soon?...)
This is the look of a plunge that is about to happen!

The Dollar - DXY (All USD Indexes have currently the same look.)

This thing ain't going down, either... Bet on it!!
... and that can not be good for US equities, for the moment.

Everything here tells the exact same story: This rally is over! (... at least for now.)
So, let's take a look...

12 ก.ย. 2020

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Day 0; August 20., 2020.
========================

Looking at the various indexes... They all look the same (at least to me :-), like the Nasdaq 100 E-mini;

Nasdaq 100 E-mini, Daily

This, however, is telling me nothing! It shows an index run amok on excess liquidity, in a hopium fueled, delusional world. There is nothing to see here. Very disappointing!
So, now what??...

... but wait a minute! - Isn't the Nasdaq==FAANGs?! Of course it does, for now.
Let's have a look;
FAANGs, Daily

THERE IT IS!!!
Do you see it? - Of course you do!


Gotcha, you miserable bastard! - It's all yours now!!
From here on out, you take this sucker for everything it got!
Do it!! - You own it!!!
... and that deserted-looking Nasdaq chart (above) isn't so bare anymore, now is it?!

Now, here is what you already know:
a) It is in an major uptrend;
b) It is at record levels;
c) It is likely overextended;
d) There is a perfect bearish Deep Crab, on the Daily chart(!!), pointing 10% higher;
e) The same Deep Crab coincides with the exact Quarter Point, @1250;
f) The 127% extension of the last leg coincides with the Deep Crab AND with that major Quarter Point;
g) They have just finished Stop Hunting the living daylights out of this, for days on end,
exactly at the 50% Fib. retracement of the most recent, major up-leg. - Which also means
that Deep Crab has plenty of juice to bear down on it's target!
h) There is also a weekday gap (@1114). Meaning: this thing is rearing to shoot up and hit it's target!

Just how many more clues does one possibly need??...
What do you think is about to happen here??...
For real.

... and...
... switching to the Nasdaq 100 Daily, all of the above "FAANG observations"
point EXACTLY to 12500, a MAJOR QUARTER POINT!! Whaaaat?!...
There is your next clue! - Not that you needed one more, right?!

So, you bought it up, off of the 2hr. chart, off the top of a big, Bullish Hammer,
paying 11375. Easy peasy.

12 ก.ย. 2020

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Day 1; August 29., 2020.
========================

Been sitting on this Long, in the Nasdaq 100 E-mini, for the past 9 days, making absolutely stupid amounts of money, every single day!
This is a strait, unmitigated Moon Shot where one couldn't get stopped out even if one tried.
In the meantime, for rather uninteresting reasons (too many people kept asking, so, I decided just to start posting, instead), I started posting on TradingView,
for the first time, ever. (Actually, for the first time ever, anywhere.)

Here is the original post:

... and the few bunch, right before this.
These early posts are more rudimentary (down-and-dirty, really) but I was otherwise engaged at that moment, so, I regret if these took up space
for no good reason.

12 ก.ย. 2020

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Day 2; September 02, 2020.
09:30 EST
==========================
Baaam!! Whaaat uuuuup?!... The Nasdaq, that's for sure, one might observe.

This was a strait, unmitigated, 9 day long Moon Shot! Do-re-mi, and lots of it :-)
Hit our target in no time at all, in what was probably the easiest trade ever.

Consequently...

...got stopped out @12347, off of the 2hr. chart,

$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$
for a Net Profit: +972 Nasdaq E-mini points
$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

Important!!: Just as one took this trade based on the FAANGs signal,
one exited the same trade based also on the same FAANGs signal!



BUT... we all know this is not why we were here, right?!
Our real task is just about to begin, in earnest.
We are going to drain this ugly bastard for everything it's got!!
- Now that we know what's coming and now that we know what we are doing, right?!
So, let's get to it!


This is still: Day 2; September 02, 2020.
but now it's: 16:00 EST - Cash trading had just closed.
==============================================
We are flush with fresh cash, as well as we just had 9 worry free (trading) days
to prepare for what's coming.
So, in anticipation, we have disconnected grandma's life support, sold the farm,
mortgaged our unborn children to a local loan shark, and generally raised
as much ammo (cash) as humanly possible in the known Universe, right?!
Had plenty of time.
... and now, we are about to hit the Nasdaq 100 E-mini, something fierce.

So what are we looking at here?
Look again where/how the FAANG closed for the day, right near our target:

See that beautiful Spinning Top, smack in the middle of our Deep Crab's PRZ (Potential Reversal Zone)? - Of course you do.
- This is obvious indecision, at All-time Highs, following a stupid run up.
This is as bearish as it gets!! (a 93% likelihood, to be exact :-)
Just looking at it... damn... probably should have gone home SHORT already. Oh well.
BUT ...
We are leaving our trusted FAANGs behind here and switching directly
to the Nasdaq 100 E-mini.

12 ก.ย. 2020

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I am still trying to add the rest of this post but TradingView seems to be coughing up blood for some reason. So, it's a wait-and-see...

12 ก.ย. 2020

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Day 3; September 03, 2020.
06:00 EST
==========================
The European session is now just cruising, waiting for the US to open.
Look at the 2 hr. chart - comments included:

Baam, we are already in business! - Now that doesn't suck, right?!
-----
This was SOLD @12292, and now we are sitting net SHORT, w. a 40 point stop.
-----
We don't expect this to go too far, on it's initial run but we have a clear target at: 12100, the Gartley's PRZ. Just looking for the first +175 points here.

It is now 11:15 EST
The New York session is already well under way. (Truth to be told, I was taking a nap not expecting too much here, just yet.)

Baam!! Whaaaaat?!?!... (I hate to suddenly wake up to drama :-)
Now what??... We are already up over +285 points, so at least that doesn't suck.
Obviously this just blew through all the Gartley's PRZs, so that Gartley is no more. Where are we going here?
At least it looks like that 200 period Moving Average stopped this. so there is
some visible support to work with.
- But this thing is faaaast! Gotta buy some time to figure this out! Gotta protect the already massive profits!... Let's look at the options.

Too late! Options' volatility is already out of this world so, there is no way to reasonably convert our short into a synthetic put - i.e. buying a nearby Call.
Gotta figure something else, and fast!!
- The moral of this part of the story is: Have a plan! - Which I obviously did not :-(

This is the 30 min. chart, at 11:30


Look at where it's catching!
a) It's showing total indecision on the various hourly time frames;
b) The 200 M.A. on the 2 hr. caught this initial push down;
c) It's sitting exactly half away between two Quarter Points;
d) Look at that obvious channel, suddenly visible on this 30 min. chart!

So, we may have at least a little time here, to figure out what to do next.
-----
However, examining the 15 min. chart, it's already showing 2 distinct bullish Hammers, not to mention this is now sitting at the very bottom of that newly found channel - see the chart above. This thing may start coming back from here thus:
-----
Lowering our Stop to 11928.00
-----
On the very next 15 min. bar our stop was hit @11928.75. (bad stop placement?...)
Thus, we rode the first leg down of this SHORT:
$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$
for a Net Profit: +363.25 Nasdaq E-mini points
$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$
It's now 11:45 and we are flat while feverishly looking round for more clues.

The obvious place to look first is, of course, the FAANGs:

Baam!! Look at that perfection!
Our Deep Crab's 1st support level caught this initial plunge, like magic.
Deep Crabs tend to do that. They are, on average, 91% reliable across different markets. - And that is as good as it gets.
-----
Important!!: Also, notice that massive overnight gap, above, these things left as they fell out of bed during the cash session.
- This is your next, very important clue! This thing is very unlikely to come
all the way back up. E.g. you should be expecting this move to escalate further, sometime fairly soon.

The second Important(!!) need-to-know here is this:
Always trade at least 2 lots (contracts) because in all cases such, as this here,
you would close out one, right here, while letting the second one run (hence the name "runner") with a break even stop. Doesn't get any easier than that.
-----

Our problem here is that we haven't taken our own advice and we are currently trading just one, single contract. That is bad. So, now we are relegated to watch what happens, on both, the Nasdaq and the FAANGs, on lower time frames, to look for clues as to what's next.
We are here to cash in huge, so watch it like a hawk!

12 ก.ย. 2020

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It is now 15:00 EST and we are headed for the cash close.
This thing is breaking hard, once again. This is no good!
We are sitting here without a "runner" and they can certainly crash this into the close. Whether this is suckers bet or not, we better put back on a SHORT, with a stop inline with current volatility.
-----
E.g. We sold one contract @11727, with a 55 point stop. - Fingers crossed.
-----


Long story short, the very next bar, they shoved this thing way back up, where the sun don't shine:
$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$
For a loss of: -55.75 points.
$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$
Damn!... And that is why you do need a runner, exactly for situations such as this one! So, now we are out, going flat into the close.

It's 16:30 and the cash session is now closed.
-----
Important!!: People, Do Not worry about overnight crashes, ever!
Unless the Earth falls into the Sun during the Asia session, there is just no way that they are gonna do anything radical while the rest of the civilized world is asleep. No way, no how, none, nada!
Instead, they are going to Stop Hunt you to death, just to get your money.
So unless you are going along for The Hunt, do not do it!
If you want to see how to go along for Stop Hunts, look at:
this post...

... or this post...

... or this one...

and this one;

Otherwise wait for the New York pre-open - the middle of the European session - and watch them turn into the major direction of the day, sometime between 8:00-9:30 EST. Now this later could also happen once London is fully open but it rarely does.
Nevertheless, while a major move during the European session is possible it is
not very likely.

12 ก.ย. 2020

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Day 4; September 04, 2020.
09:00 EST
==========================
The New York pre-Open is getting under way and we are looking at the 30 min. time frames, both, Nasdaq and our trusty FAANGs;


Just as it was predicted above, the night (Asia + Europe) sessions have gone absolutely nowhere. They have worked to death a 300 point wide range while making their way strait across our newly visible 30 min. channel, from one end to the other, ending up exactly at the top of this channel and also, in the dead center of that 300 point range.
Remember, yesterday the FAANGs (30 min.) ended up exactly on the first support
of our remarkably trusty Deep Crab.Nothing gained, nothing lost overnight.
Now, as the cash trading is about to open, here is our plan:

We still have everything in our favor as not much has changed overnight;
But...
...here are our new clues - and this time we sure could use them:
a) Now, the Nasdaq is sitting at the top of that new, 30 min. chnnel;
b) The 50 period M.A. is bearing down strait at the most recent bar;
c) The most recent bar is a Bearish Hammer;
d) Yesterday this thing took a nasty spill and the only thing holding it
up here is mostly a 61.8% retracement off of the 2hr. chart and the
800 period M.A. on the 30 min.

If they wanna hang their hats on those, above, then good luck!
We are selling this thing, once again, right here, right now, something fierce!!
Sell, Sell, Sell!!...
Here, we sold right at the close of that bearish Hammer - 30min.:
-----
Sold one contract @11712, with a 170 point stop - due to much increased vol.
Also, they may try to stop-hunt this thing, one more time.
-----

It is exactly 11:00 EST now and our trusty 30 min. FAANGs chart is telling (shouting, actually) us everything we need to know;



a) We are already deep into the +++, since 9:00;
b) The FAANGs plunged through our trusty Depp Crab's second support target, righ out of the gate;
c) The FAANGs also filled that all important Gap @1114-1118, they left behind on the way up;
d) Both, the Nadaq and the FAANGs have just put in two bullish Hammers on the 30 min.;
e) The Nasdaq seems to be bouncing off of a major Quarter Point @11250;
... it's time to look for the exits.

We lowered our stop to just above the previous Pin Bar, on the 30 min.,
to 11378. We are blown out on the very next bar (a huge Shift Bar)
$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$
For a profit of: +334 points.
$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$
Feeling good about this one! Everything here is telling us that this thing is likely done for a while.

12 ก.ย. 2020

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It's now 14:00 and while this thing is volatile, it's been just threading water.
-----
But wait a minute... What's that?



Finally! We now have our first visible Harmonic in the Nasdaq itself.
It's a bearish Gartley on the 30 min. We will be back soon, selling this thing once again.

At 15:30, just as the cash session was drawing to a close...
-----

That bearish Gartley triggered beautifully! This time we are Not going home flat. No way!
----
We have sold a Nasdaq 100 E-mini @11617, w. 70 point Stop.
----


... right on the close on that big bearish bar, dropping back out of the Gartley's PRZ, exactly at 15:30.

Then, just a little over 2 hours later, by 17:30... Boom!!

-----
... and we are out! - Manually covering this short in the Gratley's
second support zone, @11383.25;
$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$
For a profit of: +233.75 points.
$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$
Now, that was easy, wasn't it?! Quick, clean and now flat, there is probably very little to see here for the rest of the night.

12 ก.ย. 2020

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Day 5; September 08, 2020.
03:00 EST
==========================
After a long, 4 day grind higher, finally!...



A beautiful bullish Bat has formed on the Nasdaq 1 hr. which, of course, we will be selling first! It is incidentally sitting right under the 50 period hourly M.A., in a massive down trend.
Sell, sell, sell!!!

So, during the London pre-Open, at 02:57:
----
Sold a Nasdaq 100 E-mini @11512, w. 60 point Stop.
----

It is now 06:00 EST, mid European session.
Whaaat?!...



This tells you everything, you need to know!
a) A massive dump on the London open - not very common;
b) It just bounced off of a major Quarter Point @11250;
c) The hourly Nasdaq just closed on a massive Bullish Candle;
d) It is sitting exactly on the 800 period hourly M.A.;
e) It is sitting on the recent lows - also the 800 M.A.;
f) It is 1.67% off of the top of this last down move;
g) The NY session is coming up. They are very likely to reverse, as usual!;
h) Most importantly: There is a Bullish Bat sitting right above you!! - Believe it!!

Just how many more clues does one really need?!... Right?!
Ladies and Gents, we are outta here! Cover, cover, cover! Now!!

We have covered our shorts exactly on the hourly close, on the very top of that massive Bullish Candle, @11323.
$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$
For a profit of: +189 points.
$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$
Here, we are flat, going into the New York cash open. Awaiting to see what appens next.

12 ก.ย. 2020

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==================================
Here is the short tally of this long post
==================================
1) We have traded the Nasdaq 100 E-mini for 5 non-consecutive days, between August 20 and September 08, 2020;
2) During this period we have placed 6 trades;
3) As of September 08, 2020, our net profits totaled: +2036.25 Nasdaq 100 Emini points;
4) Our pulse never got above 80. (at least, shouldn't have. - Right?!)
=====================================================================
Thank you for reading. I hope it wasn't a complete waste of your time.

... but before we go:
A huge shout out to Scott Carney, the man without whom Harmonics would
look very different, if at all.

Scott, you Da Man!! - Don't ever let anyone tell you different!
Cheers

...and now, I am switching back to my active post, here:

16 ก.ย. 2020

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IMPORTANT NOTE!
===============
If one wishes to watch these concepts implemented in REAL TIME, refer to these posts:
Nasdaq

FAANGs

EURAUD

EURUSD

26 ก.ย. 2020

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========================== Live Trading UPDATES ========================

ALL of the above trading concepts, outlined this article can be viewed in the
following Live Trading (Real Time) posts:

Nasdaq100 E-mini

Forex

---------------------------------------

Weekly Totals (Net R.O.I.) since this article appeared:

Nasdaq100 ****************************************************
+561.5 points;
Weekly Net R.O.I., Sept., 14-18, 2020: +35.1%
***********************************************************
Nasdaq100 *********************************************
+212.25 points;
Weekly Net R.O.I., Sept., 21-25, 2020: +13.25%
***********************************************************

FX *********************************************************
Weekly Net R.O.I., Sept., 14-18, 2020: +11.56%
************************************************************
FX *********************************************************
Weekly Net R.O.I., Sept., 21-25, 2020: +21.67%
************************************************************