Nasdaq100 - SHORT; Speaks for itself.
ที่อัปเดต:
This is the Quarterly (3 Months) Log Scale chart.
... should one prefer a plain, Metric Scale;
... and, of course, the Daily
... should one prefer a plain, Metric Scale;
... and, of course, the Daily
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Here is the RSI for some smoothing;บันทึกช่วยจำ
Ohh, BTW, here are the Safe Havens, should one find the need ...
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SHORTบันทึกช่วยจำ
Chances are ...
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Follow the actual trading in the Active Post;บันทึกช่วยจำ
Just a gentle reminder as to what happens after a "Generational Speculative Bubble" - like this current one - bursts;Blue Chip Performance: 1973-1974
Du Pont -58.4%
Eastman Kodak -62.1%
Exxon -46.9%
Ford Motor -64.8%
General Electric -60.5%
General Motors -71.2%
Goodyear -63.0%
IBM -58.8%
McDonalds -72.4%
Mobil -59.8%
Motorola -54.3%
PepsiCo -67.0%
Philip Morris -50.3%
Polaroid -90.2%
Sears -66.2%
Sony -80.9%
Westinghouse -83.1%
(... and this was after one of the "less celebrated bubbles" in market history.)
Feel free to substitute today's glamour tech stocks in the above list.
One might also wish to peruse Goldman Sach's current Non-Profitable Technology Index;
hussmanfunds.com/wp-content/uploads/comment/mc210201c.jpg
...for good measure.
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Furthermore, Margin debt – the amount of money that investors have borrowed in order to buy stocks – is now *** at the highest level in history, not only in absolute terms, but also relative to U.S. GDP! ***hussmanfunds.com/wp-content/uploads/comment/mc210201p.png
All those "talking heads" advocating the opposite are either stupid, lying, or as is usually the case, both.
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Not convinced, yet?!Then how about that the ratio of U.S. total equity market capitalization to GDP, the present ratio being 2.63, is 337% above the historical norm! (Not the low but the norm!!)
... the norm, which is 0.78, being 70% below the current level.
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It's done, ...... put a fork in it!
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Here are the FAANGs "in Gold";This does not look like a rally in the making, now does it?!
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Here is the Cash Nasdaq;The most likely scenario.
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FX Carry Trades - for when the time comes;This is one of (if not THE) most lop sided FX positioning out there! (The whole world is currently LONG.)
This pair is still working it's way higher, anticipating one, final global equities rally, for a Blow-off Market Top.
So, now you know what to do ... (When the time comes, short this pair like there was no tomorrow!!)
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On a Foot Note;You know you’re in a bubble
- When funding a 36-year stream of expected inflation-adjusted spending requires over 38 years of money up-front;
- When the median price/revenue ratio of S&P 500 components exceeds 3.3;
- When every single decile of S&P 500 components is at record valuation extremes; hussmanfunds.com/wp-content/uploads/comment/mc210315n.png
- When the amount of leverage in the system (U.S. equity markets) is now easily the highest in history, by any measure, not just in absolute terms! (relative to GDP, etc. Margin Debt/GDP = Margin Debt/Market Cap x Market Cap/GDP Showing insane over-valuation across the board!)
- In a world where speculators now value the stock of bitcoin at one-fifth the value of the entire U.S. monetary base;
- Where the current SPAC mania is identical to the South Sea Bubble in as much as: "Let them see not what they do!";
- and so on...
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