NQ contract roll week, M (June) contract is active. The Friday volume was the combined highest in weeks, on a down day. The prior O/N (low volume) Long play/props are highlighted in the attached chart and are now targets. The moves balance out, for your reference. The Chart is the March NQ, not NQ1 as this is off. We have 10 trading days until Fed day and we may see a lower move with typical Long Only Rocket up. This has been the typical knee jerk FOMO move. On March Chart below: 2 white arrows are U-Turn moves in or near the O/N (fake, low volume). These usually come back on retest just like Friday. The Fib Levels are the YTD range (Yellow Arrow). NAZ is near lower end of Channel, KL 17920-60 is what to watch. The point brackets (white / yellow) will account for value of drop offset (fake U-Turns) and the effects of. The brackets under Fib level 50% could have been the true NAZ position, without U-Turns. The current YTD range may play out until the end of 2nd quarter. The point is use these as downside targets, no drop keep buying the dip and FOMO forever. Friday volume was huge and on a down day, during the regular session and we need to see the results of the Monday reg session. This may be the pattern break that I have been looking for. I will update on Teams with intraday moves/calls and will leave this post open for TV followers (daily updates).
NQ H March Chart
NQ H March Chart
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NAZ under KL 17960, chart below is Range for Open and all lines are Key Levels to watch. O/N is staying inside KL's 17920-78057. KLOD (Key Level of Day) is 18150 and under is Short and above is Long. Good Luck today and I will check back later. May see one last U-Turn attempt up and if not, go SHORT.
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NAZ is trying for a bounce off Fib level and KL 17920 for move back up in Pre Open, look for stall out or Open Drive sell off. White is Long play and Yellow is Short.
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So far the O/N is showing KL Opposite direction trades. At KL wait for hit and retest and take in the opposite direction after retest. This will continue until a break out or half move inside range and then a Hook Long or Short.
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920 KL retest for Scalp Long follow white dash arrow and take profit at KL or reverse on stall out. Typical Monday move back in range. This may be Head fake long (Short) set up.
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NAZ is lower half of O/N Range 18000-920 wait for break out and may go sideways for a bit.
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I will be back at the Close, going Private. A Stalling NAZ is a Falling NAZ. Dead Zone will try a lift, any stall out will retest O/N Low and then some.
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Warning, Push/Pull is back. Just watch yourself under 950-60
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NAZ staying in O/R and Opposite Direction trades off 18000 and 17920 until break out or Hook.
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All sideways since Open and most likely up until near Close, needs to pass 18000-20 or back lower with some force.
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950 is Hook up or drop, watch the Ticks.
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This consolidation for a bigger move up or lower, can't tell yet. Back later. Reg Session has no strength again, may see some Dead Zone magic so watch the lift out of nowhere.
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Boring narrow Reg Session, expect a gig move next. Friday was one of a few that did not rally and now Monday is half dead. This may be the break of the typical Friday-Monday Rig up pattern. Unless that jack it in O/N for CPI Release tomorrow. Just notice how it is going directly sideways and trying to get to the O/N for the typical Pump or drop offset. The typical games may be ending or breaking down. Anyway, 100 points from 980 is O/N high or 880, one of these will get hit by the EOD.
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Strange day, this will be the 8th time that the NAZ has dropped back to KL Zone 17920-40, all prior went back above. This time may be lower and under for awhile. Unless they get this to the O/N for the easy lift on low volume. That may be the play here. This dose not look like intraday strength, may be just another game/odd set up.
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So no U-Turn or drop, Overnight is next and today was as sideways as it gets, O/N may prop back up, usually the play. This looks like 2/28, the NAZ rallied the next day. O/N may be narrow as CPI is the next big piece of info for many. I will be back tomorrow, any move let it break out and retest before you trade (may be 1st move head fake, trap).
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3/12 Pre Open 5am Update, The O/N with usual lift after the Monday Reg Session was dead/flat or sideways (until the O/N, then it went up). Now we have the CPI release and the fact that the NAZ has now bounced off KL 940-20 for the 9th time (in the O/N, again). KLOD today is 17980, ML O/N is 18030. Look Long as the O/N is the Boss and the BTD/FOMO's have not been able to trade for 2 trading sessions.
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Just a note. Looks like the daily charts of the Mag 7 may suggest a drop and the 10YN looks the same. No Pop, look short with some conviction today or next few days.
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O/N Pump/Dump, now it is up to the Dead Zone lift attempt.
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10YN is lower and 18225 is next target higher for rejection/test.
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Dropping to 18130-090, retest and up or lower on reaction.
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Divergence is white arrow
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under day high is hook short setting up
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May see sell off should this drop under O/N High and 1st30M High
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Common for NAZ to move strong in one direction to only switch gears and redirect. Unlikely is Dead Zone since the DZ is usually up only. If we see a drop in the DZ, it will be strong move.
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Scalp the wiggle and wait.
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NAZ still lifting with ease and struggles to get lower. Need to see a clear heavy volume sell off or back to ATH.
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Back later, NAZ back under or in O/N range may be the bigger move on stall out here. Top move here may be clean out and move to lower end as yesterday may have been consolidation for lower move. Low chance as the DZ and O/N just keep pushing it up.
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The big play would be a take out of yesterday low and create a serious Outside Day Reversal and put a knife in this rangebound index,
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Think Big, You Can Do It. BTD/FOMO Killer. The O/N is not the real Boss. Unlikely, but would be fun and like old times.
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17890 is the lower target and just might play out as the NAZ is stalling out.
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Looks like no drop and next move may be back up 100 points o so. This is KL to watch 18100
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Use a stop as may be head fake, BTD/FOMO Forever.
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Correction, The O/N is the BOSS. What was I thinking.
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Crazy, that was a Short Trap. Bazzzaro world continues. O/N to ATH is next move should this hold.
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NQ M contract is now heavier volume and I will switch over tomorrow. The up move change is also part of the rig or problem, notice how all non Reg Session items are rigged to upside. We are just above O/N high and will slide into O/N and see more lift if so.
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18080 to 180 is 100 point move, look for redirect or sideways and up.
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On drop, needs to get under and stay under 130 or may bounce off, again. No drop then watch Day High reaction and rotate around.
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10YN is stationary, strange events here, I am Flat.
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M on 30M chart, probably nothing but NAZ is 120 points up from last pivot.
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NAZ keeps bouncing off lower channel and may go Mid Channel here
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Still Flat, too easy. Curveball may show up.
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Most LC Tech went up and 10YN did not move. Strange but inside the range.
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3/13, Not trading today, NAZ with contract change and roll (Gap, far left) is too sloppy. Maybe short on stall out as it just seems to be next move. The range is still active.
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Switch to M or NQ1 today.
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Chart for next few days. Like I said, Sloppy.
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The Tuesday U-Turn off KL 940-20 has placed the NAZ at a hard level to get wrong. The NAZ can go big either way at current level of 18440 (June Contract). Let this one play out some inside the O/N range and Open Drive (1st 30M) of Reg Session.
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KLOD hit 18383 and Long above and short below is the play and wait for confirm retest. I am Flat, this is a call for you.
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So KLOD retest from under was Confirm for Short, needs to stay under or will lift back up to Upper O/R.
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BTD/FOMO will have to show up or lower we go.
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Just notice and track 100 point moves and block the whip or noise.
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Push/Pull day so most likely will close on low or lower end.
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NAZ is struggling to stay up, Russell is way up and SP is flat. May see start of allocation shift away from LC Tech to small caps. This may play out for awhile. Until Fed Day FOMO Rocket back to ATH and then sell off the next day.
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Circle is Fake Drop Offset Zone from yesterday, back under is drop zone.
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340-240 is play here or 300 bounce back to 400
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320 did run to 395 and now below 383 at 370, whippy and Long Trap most likely. Heading toward the O/N will lift the NAZ for the evening/overnight Prop. The NAZ needs this in order to stabilize.
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Mentioned today would be sloppy. The play so far today was a drop and then lift back to ML O/R and then rotating around. This is a bearish signal and may see a drop by the end of the day. Should this lift back up, just go long as this was a test.
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Just be aware that a nasty head fake long may be in play and is why I am not trading today.
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I am out for the day. The other issue would be the drop during close will most likely get pushed back up in O/N. The play me be to go Long regardless of the movement. Just use a decent stop so you do not get stopped out and the Long play should sell off by Open tomorrow. Trade it or wait.
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Long Prop idea and place stop below arrow bottom, or place long add at same spot.
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O/N trade or bust
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O/N Close Rig Pop Trade good for 100. Typical Drop Offset with Open Reg Session sell off on the way. Sitting out today, waiting for range break out . 450-300 is range to watch with white and yellow arrows showing BEO targets.
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Today and next few days watch for an outside day reversal. Friday is tomorrow and we had a sell off Friday last week with a flat Monday, need to watch the Friday-Monday move. Keep in mind that, O/N, Weekend, Dead Zone all go up 95% of the time and the only real selling is typically in the 1st 30M of Open. Expecting a nasty head fake long to show up prior, during or after Fed Day. No Fed No Rally and BTD/FOMO Forever.
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Mentioned this many months ago. When QT (quantitative tightening) started was when I noticed that the O/N was being used to prop or stabilize the NAZ back up (prior to next session and after a down Reg Session). This is why I make calls like the yesterday Long Close, it just will not stay down and when 6-7 companies control 50% or greater of the market, it is easy to rig up. Just watch and play until it breaks down, been a few years now.
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18420 and under is scalp pull back short to 380. 420-380 is range here
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380 is ML O/N and KLOD may rotate or bounce if no drop
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Mentioned many days ago and still active, take opposite direction trades at KL's (after confirm or on initial hit). Look back, been the best and at ground zero (very little noise).
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Diablo alter (Red TL) 408-415 is TZ on Diablo pass. 334 KL is drop target. NAZ above 380 will try O/N high
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7:30 release will create a wiggle, after and after 1st 30M of Open may see spin job of: Bad is good news or good new s is good news, etc. this will fit the PA (price action) that eventually plays out.
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Diablo is holding
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Back after Open, Open Drive should see heavy selling at 1st, If not I would be surprised or wait for stall out Short.
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NAZ in NTZ (No Trade Zone) as it is in middle of O/N Range. Wait for a move to an edge of range and take the break out or opposite direction trade. Look back on past day or so of my Post's, the big move will be the curve ball that is out of the typical pattern. Thinking Lower move after head fake Long. This may not happen until after Fed Day.
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Still in O/N Range and popped off KL 334, Diablo retest now.
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Dead Zone lift next and 310 is target
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310 Hit and range is 225-310 for next move
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The blue/purple Box is from the bottom of White arrow and start of yellow and is the zone to watch for next move. Opp Direction trades at top/bottom of Box.
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310-230 next near range to watch
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Opp Dir Trade with stop. Scalp up/down until break out or drop.
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1-2 hours prior to Open and 1 hour after are best trading times. After that it is pretty much garbage and gambling. Sideways with big next next, Reg Session (and dead zone) today is showing selling and that is new, may want to go with it.
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Expanded range, should NAZ get above Box and KLOD does not mean anything, can still drop back under, later or tomorrow.
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Yesterday 383 was the KL as the NAZ hit several times, eventually STAYED under. The same is with 305. The NAZ will rocket up and snail struggle lower.
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18260 and above is Long Scalp or drop zone, one will go here.
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In range of arrow and lets see if it will bounce up since it is struggling to drop.
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18220 is MID Box and above should pop back up.
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Looks like lower end clean out, got the Close and O/N ready to go, you know the drill
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382 is target here
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When you trade the NAZ, think like an Elevator and you will do Great.
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Almost there, needs to pass ML O/R
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325 Is bottom of O/N low and rejecting
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325 Rejection sends NAZ back in the Box and watch 10TYN as it is dropping, Yields Up. Just watch the NAZ and the Box upper level, 305
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NAZ at 2PM CT is back at 260 and may pop or drop from Level. Tape looks more like a pop than drop.
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Final 20M 100 point move back to 260, playing in the box.
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Have to take profit on every trade as the moves come directly back.
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Very strange price action and not sure which direction is or will be the winner. 100 plus moves in narrow range, toughest trading you will see.
ปิดการเทรด ด้วยตนเอง:
Closing this one and started new for Friday Rig Long Call. www.tradingview.com/...o-NQ-Range-03-15-24/