NQ/QQQ Weekly Levels & Trade Prep (Jul31-Aug4)

31 ก.ค. 2023

SUMMARY

• NQ finished the week with a gain of 1.87% after trading in a range of 401 pts.
  
• NQ closed above the Mar 29th high & 9/21 emas.
  
• First support is now the Mar 29th high
  
• Price is still above the HTF 618 Fib and Aug16th high
  
• Strongest sectors for the week were XLC & XLC. The weakest were XLU & XLRE.
  
• Another big week for earnings with key reports from AMD, HOOD, AAPL, AMZN, BABA, ABNB
  
• Long term bias remains bullish but deeper pull back to the upward trendline is possible.
  
• Market needs rotation back into small caps to push to ATHs.
  
• Watching 10 year yields as they pushed above 4% last Thursday
  
• Monday is the last day of the month.
  
• Key econ data this week includes US S&P PMI, ADP Employment & Non Farm Payrolls on Friday.
  

ECONOMIC EVENTS

• MON US Chicago PMI
  
• TUES CAD S&P Manu PMI, US S&P Manu PMI, US ISM Manu PMI, US JOLTS & US
  Construction Spending
  
• WED US ADP Employment Change, EIA Crude Inventories
  
• THUR US S&P Services PMI, US ISM Services PMI, US Factory Orders
  
• FRI CAD Unemployment Rate, US Non Farm Payrolls & US Unemployement Rate
  

EARNINGS

• MON AMKR, ANET, CAR, FANG, IMGN, L, LEG, RIG, SOFI, WDC, YUMC
  
• TUES AFL, AIG, ALL, AMD, AME, CAT, CHK, CZR, DVN, EA, ELF, ETN, MO, MRK, MTCH,
  NCLH,PFE,PINS, ROK,SBUX, SEDG, TAP, UBER, SFM
  
• WED ACAD, CFLT, DASH, DISH, EMR, FTS, HOOD, IR, JCI, KHC, MCK, MET, MGM, MRO,
  NTR, OXY, PSA, PYPL, QCOM, QRVO,
  
• THUR AAPL, ABNB, ADT, AMGN, AMZN, BABA, BCE, BE, CNQ, COIN, COP, CVNA, DKNG,
  DOCN, ED, EXPE, FTNT, HAS, IEP, K, MRNA, NET,
  
• FRI ENB, MGA, XPO, SONY
  

BULLISH NOTES

• NQ still above the 1.272 Fib X keeping the 1.618 Fib X (16828) in play
  
• EMAs remain stacked.
  
• Price in now only 7.47% of the ATH
  
• Potential HTF 886 Fib price magnet.
  
• Potential earnings momentum from many key reports including AAPL
  
• Potential positive reaction to PMI data and Non-Farm Payrolls.
  
• Potential rotation into small caps.
  
• Buy the dip is back in favour.
  
• Market breath has improved.
  
• NQ is firmly in the long term bull zone. Above high time frame 618 Fib RT.
  
• Potential month end window dressing.
  

BEARISH NOTES

• Price rejected at the Mar 29th high
  
• Potential double top at Jul 19th high
  
• NQ may need to test upward trendline
  
• Potential negative reaction key earnings reports including AAPL
  
• Potential negative reaction to PMI data and Non-Farm Payrolls
  
• The Aug 16th high breakout point has not been re-tested yet.
  
• Price is stretched from the 200 sma
  
• Potential 10 year yield move above 4%
  

31 ก.ค. 2023

บันทึก

NQ_F Slow start to the week. Price trapped just above the Mar 29th high. Market waiting on more info. Seeing some rotation into the lighter weighted sectors as the Megas consolidate creating this sideways price action.

1 ส.ค. 2023

บันทึก

NQ_F still riding the May 29th high level. Watch the downward trendline for a break. Upside target is the red box. If price cannot hold the May 29th level a retest of recent lows is likely.

2 ส.ค. 2023

บันทึก

NQ_F has gapped lower. Now testing the 21 ema. Key spot to watch. Break below = move to recent lows and potentially the upward trendline.

3 ส.ค. 2023

บันทึก

NQ_F sold off hard yesterday. Broke the 21 ema and moved right to the upward trendline. Now trading at the bottom of the green support box. If the box cannot hold a move to the 55 ema is likely. Panic sell off could take it back to the Aug 16th high. Careful with shorts as market is waiting for key reports from AAPL and AMZN afterhours.

4 ส.ค. 2023

บันทึก

NQ_F The bottom of the green box has held so far. Price is back above the trendline and testing the 21 ema from below. Expect bullish price action above the 21 ema and bearish below. Weak earning from AAPL but 10 yield have pullback after NFT.