NIFTY-Weekly Outlook-Venkat's Blog

21 พ.ค. 2023

The index moved in a range of 398 points viz. between 18060 and 18458
The oscillators of different time frames are showing mixed signals
The Index has clearly stayed above the long term trend line
Monthly Option expiry and open interest to drive the direction of the market
 
Expected scenarios for the ensuing week

1. The index has made primary base at 18060 followed by another base at 18200.
   Index is moving in an Upward sloping channel with top around 18600 and support at 17970 with a Pivot at 18320
   Index may find supports at 18130,18050, 17970 and the index could face resistances at multiple levels 18380.18470,18560
   Additional interesting observations
   As observed in the previous blog index attempted the monthly peak levels of the past viz. 18134(Feb 23 High), 18251(Jan 23 High), Index has closed above. 18134(Feb 23 High) and below 18251(Jan 23 High)
   18350(Jan 22 High), though crossed to test 18398, it got sold off
   The Index is entering positive territory and may remain biddish till we see a monthly close below 17700
   The Index broke the downward sloping channel starting Nov 22 which was having a height of around 850 points. The target from the Break-out levels suggest that this rally has potential till 18450-600 with hurdles on every 100 points starting 18180
   There had been multiple Gaps created during the up move (These are for quick reference as these are risk zones for sharp moves)
   17126-17221(far away for now)
   16650-16770 (far away for now)
   16360-16560 (far away for now)
   
   

Final Note

*The Index has stayed well above the long-term trend line and the 200 DMA at 17800
The weekly chart shows a steep upward channel with top around 18600 and support at 17970 with a Pivot at 18320
We are entering in to another crucial week and crucial range. The zone between 17700-18300 has seen sharp moves on either side
A word of caution
Index has made higher highs and lower lows
Daily charts show a Hammer candle and has potential to move towards 18600 if manages a daily close above 18240
A new trend seems to be emerging towards attempt of earlier peaks or even towards posting an ATH. As noted in the previous blog, the index has been making alternate bullish and bearish candles for the past 5 weeks. We can expect a positive candle
Expected to remain in the range of 17970-18600 and any close outside the range requires re-assessment of risk
A daily close below 18K would see the Index drift towards 17840 and possibly 17600
Expect a tuff fight during the week as the monthly option expiry could see increased volatility


Disclaimer: The views expressed here are personal and not connected to SYFX Treasury Foundation. The views are for learning and reference purpose only.