NIFTY may touch 15000 before reaching 22500!
ที่อัปเดต:
Yes! You read that right.
So there's a technical reason why
NIFTY is choppy and sideways this past year and a half. In the monthly timeframe, it seems like we're in a Wave 4 Correction that started in Oct'21 when NIFTY first touched 18000 and is still ongoing. Now if we zoom in on the weekly timeframe, we see something else: An Expanded Flat triangle pattern that's a common occurrence within a major corrective wave as per Wave theory. The fake breakout of the Oct'21 monthly candle in Nov'22 only confirms this phenomenon and is termed an 'Overthrow' in Wave lingo. Now for the expanded flat pattern to be complete in the weekly timeframe, and along with it, the completion of Wave 4 monthly, we need an 'Underthrow'. Meaning, the price should break down the previous major swing monthly (June'22) which is at 15182, and reverse from there for a major Wave 5 impulse!
We also notice lately that 18100 is turning out to be strong resistance. This is the Golden Level (0.618) in Weekly. Despite touching 18255 this last expiry (4th May '23), NIFTY reversed strongly and closed below 18100 in weekly.
Finally, there's seems to a head and shoulder-like pattern starting to form in Weekly. Even though its too early to confirm with the final leg of the right shoulder yet to form, I reckon with the Wave theory supporting, this should form and if that happens, the technical target as per H&S rules comes out to be around 14850.
Maybe this happens, maybe it doesn't! Who really knows? The market can enter into a complex corrective phase and hover more around the 17500-18200 box before breaking out without trending down. This is also a possibility.
But ask yourself this question, the Indian story is really promising. The global economy looks up to India as a shining star. Our economy, banking system is doing really well. Fundamentals look strong. Then why is the market still hovering between 17500-18100 since Oct'21? What's really stopping bulls from charging further and breaking 18900?
The price action in the next few days from hereon is extremely crucial. If any one candle closes above 18200 in a monthly or even weekly timeframe, then we might see this bullish trend continue further. But if the market stays below 18100 these next few days or weeks, then we might see a minor correction, first, till 17380. And if this level is breached in weekly, then a major correction till 14800-15000 is imminent as per Wave and technical analysis.
So there's a technical reason why
NIFTY is choppy and sideways this past year and a half. In the monthly timeframe, it seems like we're in a Wave 4 Correction that started in Oct'21 when NIFTY first touched 18000 and is still ongoing. Now if we zoom in on the weekly timeframe, we see something else: An Expanded Flat triangle pattern that's a common occurrence within a major corrective wave as per Wave theory. The fake breakout of the Oct'21 monthly candle in Nov'22 only confirms this phenomenon and is termed an 'Overthrow' in Wave lingo. Now for the expanded flat pattern to be complete in the weekly timeframe, and along with it, the completion of Wave 4 monthly, we need an 'Underthrow'. Meaning, the price should break down the previous major swing monthly (June'22) which is at 15182, and reverse from there for a major Wave 5 impulse! We also notice lately that 18100 is turning out to be strong resistance. This is the Golden Level (0.618) in Weekly. Despite touching 18255 this last expiry (4th May '23), NIFTY reversed strongly and closed below 18100 in weekly.
Finally, there's seems to a head and shoulder-like pattern starting to form in Weekly. Even though its too early to confirm with the final leg of the right shoulder yet to form, I reckon with the Wave theory supporting, this should form and if that happens, the technical target as per H&S rules comes out to be around 14850.
Maybe this happens, maybe it doesn't! Who really knows? The market can enter into a complex corrective phase and hover more around the 17500-18200 box before breaking out without trending down. This is also a possibility.
But ask yourself this question, the Indian story is really promising. The global economy looks up to India as a shining star. Our economy, banking system is doing really well. Fundamentals look strong. Then why is the market still hovering between 17500-18100 since Oct'21? What's really stopping bulls from charging further and breaking 18900?
The price action in the next few days from hereon is extremely crucial. If any one candle closes above 18200 in a monthly or even weekly timeframe, then we might see this bullish trend continue further. But if the market stays below 18100 these next few days or weeks, then we might see a minor correction, first, till 17380. And if this level is breached in weekly, then a major correction till 14800-15000 is imminent as per Wave and technical analysis.
บันทึกช่วยจำ
New to TradingView Ideas, so I'm not sure why the chart isn't showing on the web version even though one can access it in the mobile app.Nevertheless, I've uploaded an image of it on drive. You can also access the chart levels from here: drive.google.com/file/d/1KnDhqD2J4im_d2_vJv5XV8rK9bpHRWXn/view?usp=sharing
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