Nifty - Bearish move possible if Monday 1st 15m/1hr is red

12 ก.พ. 2023

Nifty has been consolidating between 17800-17900 since last few days. It is currently at a confluence point of both upper and lower trendlines.

There are more bearish indications than bullish. Hence Monday opening plus first 15m/1 hr candle is hugely important to decide what happens next. A large movement is possible in the upcoming days if Nifty opens flat or lower tomorrow and breaks 17800 in first 15m candle itself. It would signal large movement downward tomorrow. Similarly if Nifty opens tomorrow in green and crosses 17900-17920 a huge upside move is possible as well.

Bearish signs: -
1. Fib retracement of 61.8% of recent SH & SL.
2. Daily RSI below 50.
3. 17750-17850 zone in NIfty has major resistances. Nifty futures weekly chart shows no closing above the resistance zone.
4. Very bearish positioning by FIIs in both Futures & Options.
5. Multiple moving averages around 17900 both EMA and MA.
6. Options positioning indicates 17800 PE has the maximum support but no huge additions seen below 17800.
7. Global cues - Rise in treasury yields, DXY & newer bets on Fed funds rate going even higher

BEARISH BELOW 17780 with targets of 17584, 17445 and 17350.

Bullish signs: -

1. Nifty taking support from the Covid trendline and moving up.
2. Formed a double bottom and moving up and formation of higher lows indicates strong buying support still exists.

BULLISH ABOVE 17900 with targets of 18100, 18200.