NIFTY-Weekly Outlook-Venkat's Blog

The past week saw a recovery of the losses made in the previous week and attempted the next target zone of 18380. Friday’s initial session saw a sharp fall. However, the index recovered steadily over the remaining session to close above 18300 mark. Next couple of sessions are crucial to see if the Bulls continue to hold the control or allow the market drift lower.

A few observations from the weekly charts are:

• The index moved in a range of 289 points viz. between 18100 and 18389
  The oscillators of different time frames are showing mixed signals
  The Index has clearly stayed above the long term trend line
  Option open interest to drive the direction of the market
  
  

Expected scenarios for the ensuing week

*The index has made primary base at 18070 followed by another base at 18200.
Index is moving in an Upward sloping channel with top around 18500 and support at 17820 with a Pivot at 18180
Index may find supports at 18180, 18050, 17920 and the index could face resistances at multiple levels 18380.18470,18510
Additional interesting observations
As observed in the previous blog index attempted the monthly peak levels of the past viz. 18134(Feb 23 High), 18251(Jan 23 High), Index has closed above. 18134(Feb 23 High) and 18251(Jan 23 High)
18350(Jan 22 High), though once crossed, it got sold off
The Index is entering positive territory and may remain biddish till we see a monthly close below 17700
The Index broke the downward sloping channel starting Nov 22 which was having a height of around 850 points. The target from the Break-out levels suggest that this rally has potential till 18450-500 with hurdles on every 100 points starting 18180
There had been multiple Gaps created during the up move (These are for quick reference as these are risk zones for sharp moves)
17126-17221(far away for now)
16650-16770 (far away for now)
16360-16560 (far away for now)

Final Note
The Index has stayed well above the long term trend line and the 200 DMA at 17750
The weekly chart shows a steep upward channel with top at 18500 range and base at 17820
We are entering in to another crucial week and crucial range. The zone between 17700-18300 has seen sharp moves on either side
A word of caution
*
Index has made higher highs and higher lows which shows potential bullish sentiments. The target for the current move is close to 18500 and if momentum favors has potential for ATH.
A new trend seems to be emerging towards attempt of earlier peaks or even towards posting an ATH. However, the index has been making alternate bullish and bearish candles for the past 4 weeks
Expected to remain in the range of 17920-18500 and any close outside the range requires re-assessment of risk
A daily close below 18K would see the Index drift towards 17840 and possibly 17600

Disclaimer: The views expressed here are personal and not connected to SYFX Treasury Foundation. The views are for learning and reference purpose only.