10 Aug ’23 Post Mortem on Nifty + weekly expiry analysis
Nifty Weekly Analysis
Between the last expiry day and today, Nifty has managed to rise 152pts ~ 0.78% which is a good sign for the bulls. This flattish phase was much required after Nifty picked up a direction from 21st July. The technical analysis points to a trend continuation possibility and should be good for the bears!
Nifty Today Analysis
Today’s move was very much influenced by the RBI MPC decision on Repo rate & Cash reserve ratio. We will discuss that in detail as part of banknifty’s analysis (below). If you recollect yesterday we had an unusual spike in the last 1 hour & most of the traders including me were not expecting that.
What happened today was to negate that move in the opening 1hr. I assume many traders would have taken the stop loss hits both times (1 yesterday and 1 today). After the 1st hour move - nifty did not really go anywhere. If you notice the chart above the price levels at 14.30 yesterday & the close today is the same.
The 100pts in the last 1hr yesterday and the 128pts between 10.20 to 10.40 today was just a roller coaster ride for thrills. The OTM options premiums were reflecting this perfectly - neither did we have a major spike yesterday nor today. So the big boys were quite expecting this.
The 1hr chart shows how nifty has managed to close right at the trend line today. If we have a gap down opening tomorrow - the bears will feel confident to push down the prices further. The first target to take out would be the 19300 levels.
On the other hand if we have a gap-up opening, the bulls will have to take control to breach the 19690 levels which will negate the lower-high formation. My stance is 80% bearish and 20% neutral for tomorrow.
Between the last expiry day and today, Nifty has managed to rise 152pts ~ 0.78% which is a good sign for the bulls. This flattish phase was much required after Nifty picked up a direction from 21st July. The technical analysis points to a trend continuation possibility and should be good for the bears!
Nifty Today Analysis
Today’s move was very much influenced by the RBI MPC decision on Repo rate & Cash reserve ratio. We will discuss that in detail as part of banknifty’s analysis (below). If you recollect yesterday we had an unusual spike in the last 1 hour & most of the traders including me were not expecting that.
What happened today was to negate that move in the opening 1hr. I assume many traders would have taken the stop loss hits both times (1 yesterday and 1 today). After the 1st hour move - nifty did not really go anywhere. If you notice the chart above the price levels at 14.30 yesterday & the close today is the same.
The 100pts in the last 1hr yesterday and the 128pts between 10.20 to 10.40 today was just a roller coaster ride for thrills. The OTM options premiums were reflecting this perfectly - neither did we have a major spike yesterday nor today. So the big boys were quite expecting this.
The 1hr chart shows how nifty has managed to close right at the trend line today. If we have a gap down opening tomorrow - the bears will feel confident to push down the prices further. The first target to take out would be the 19300 levels.
On the other hand if we have a gap-up opening, the bulls will have to take control to breach the 19690 levels which will negate the lower-high formation. My stance is 80% bearish and 20% neutral for tomorrow.
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