We are still in strong bearish market since Feb. 2014 top.
Ongoing rally would be due to corrective pullback by wave {iv} from EW analysis.
As for the pattern of the wave {iv}, there are two possible scenarios I have.
#scenario1: wave {iv} is forming a contracting triangle.
- Price action tends to be sideways, many short-term tradings are necessary.
- Wave a in zigzag (c) looks like a leading diagonal.
- I would like to wait for pullback to 1.7~1.9 level to ride wave c.
#scenario2: wave {iv} is forming a expanded flat.
- It is good strategy to look for long opportunity in a similar way to scenario1.
- Profit target can be reasonably estimated from Fibonacci clusters scheme.
*) Fib extension: (c)=1.618(a).
*) Fib retracement: {iv}=0.382{iii}.
My long-term target is around $1.05, which is lowest price hit at Dec. 1998.
Source data can be obtained from U.S. Energy Information Administration site: www.eia.gov/dnav/ng/hist/rngwhhdd.htm
Thank you for reading my analysis. Good luck! ;)
Ongoing rally would be due to corrective pullback by wave {iv} from EW analysis.
As for the pattern of the wave {iv}, there are two possible scenarios I have.
#scenario1: wave {iv} is forming a contracting triangle.
- Price action tends to be sideways, many short-term tradings are necessary.
- Wave a in zigzag (c) looks like a leading diagonal.
- I would like to wait for pullback to 1.7~1.9 level to ride wave c.
#scenario2: wave {iv} is forming a expanded flat.
- It is good strategy to look for long opportunity in a similar way to scenario1.
- Profit target can be reasonably estimated from Fibonacci clusters scheme.
*) Fib extension: (c)=1.618(a).
*) Fib retracement: {iv}=0.382{iii}.
My long-term target is around $1.05, which is lowest price hit at Dec. 1998.
Source data can be obtained from U.S. Energy Information Administration site: www.eia.gov/dnav/ng/hist/rngwhhdd.htm
Thank you for reading my analysis. Good luck! ;)