You see but you do not observe - Arthur Conan Doyle
I am sure some of you will find this phrase familiar as it was commonly used in the TV series, Sherlock Holmes. He has a knack for details unlike ordinary people and his inquisitiveness and peculiar way of looking at things make him a good detective. You can say he is not someone who abides by the traditional rules but rather choosing to see things based on his instincts and hidden clues presented to him as evidence.
However, in using trend lines for chart reading, we need not possess the skills of Sherlock Holmes. That is the nice part, making more people qualified to participate in the game of trading and investment. But the nice part can also become the tough part if you choose to see a different lines of perception as indicated in the chart.
Depending on WHEN you start drawing the bearish trend line(yellow, orange and red) are all technically correct.
Yellow - 19/02/20 first fake breakout to trap early bulls and killed them fast!
04/03/20 attempted a 2nd murder of early bulls and unless your SL is 1.596 and below, you are also taken out!
09/03/20 - Out of compassion, Mr Market decides to reward you with a more than 20% hike in price but the past 2 wounds may affect some traders to initiate a 3rd buy.
16/03/20 - if you still have not taken profit by now, you are to take a loss unknown to you as price falls to a low of 1.521.
24/03/20 - This time, Mr Market try his luck once more to lure buyers to come in. Some came in but not too many as they found out the rally was lukewarm.
03/04/20 - Price action shows support at 1.521 and this time, it did not disappoint the buyers as it held up its 25% rally in 3 days.
08-09/04/20 - Price action begins to reverse after touching the red bearish trend line. It is now inside the orange bearish trend line too.
You can also see from 21/01/20 onwards till now ( 3 months period) , the price action are basically lock between 1.521 (support) and resistance at 2.00.
So, what do you do now ?
On the 1H chart, the price action shows a descending wedge pattern at 1.746. Wait for it to breakout before initiating a long position.
On the day chart, you can see the price has retraced 50% from the bottom at 1.521
which means it is likely to rebound at this level.
If you are conservative and prefer to invest based on the buy and hold strategy, then you might want to wait for the red bearish trend line to be broken out at 1.90 level.
Note, the 3 black horizontal lines show the various years multi lows from 1991, 1995 to 1999. Can the current price revisit these levels ? Absolutely especially if you based on the main bearish trend line (red) to analyse.
From here , you can learn that buying or selling decision falls back on your time horizon.If you are intraday trading, then the breakout of yellow bearish trend line is enough to entice you to get into a buy position.
Orange trend line in the centre shows price action falling back inside, so you may want to wait a while more. You may even want to consider shorting at smaller time frame.
I hope this is useful and the next time you want to ask someone :"Is it time to buy or sell ?" you better think twice.
However, in using trend lines for chart reading, we need not possess the skills of Sherlock Holmes. That is the nice part, making more people qualified to participate in the game of trading and investment. But the nice part can also become the tough part if you choose to see a different lines of perception as indicated in the chart.
Depending on WHEN you start drawing the bearish trend line(yellow, orange and red) are all technically correct.
Yellow - 19/02/20 first fake breakout to trap early bulls and killed them fast!
04/03/20 attempted a 2nd murder of early bulls and unless your SL is 1.596 and below, you are also taken out!
09/03/20 - Out of compassion, Mr Market decides to reward you with a more than 20% hike in price but the past 2 wounds may affect some traders to initiate a 3rd buy.
16/03/20 - if you still have not taken profit by now, you are to take a loss unknown to you as price falls to a low of 1.521.
24/03/20 - This time, Mr Market try his luck once more to lure buyers to come in. Some came in but not too many as they found out the rally was lukewarm.
03/04/20 - Price action shows support at 1.521 and this time, it did not disappoint the buyers as it held up its 25% rally in 3 days.
08-09/04/20 - Price action begins to reverse after touching the red bearish trend line. It is now inside the orange bearish trend line too.
You can also see from 21/01/20 onwards till now ( 3 months period) , the price action are basically lock between 1.521 (support) and resistance at 2.00.
So, what do you do now ?
On the 1H chart, the price action shows a descending wedge pattern at 1.746. Wait for it to breakout before initiating a long position.
On the day chart, you can see the price has retraced 50% from the bottom at 1.521
which means it is likely to rebound at this level.
If you are conservative and prefer to invest based on the buy and hold strategy, then you might want to wait for the red bearish trend line to be broken out at 1.90 level.
Note, the 3 black horizontal lines show the various years multi lows from 1991, 1995 to 1999. Can the current price revisit these levels ? Absolutely especially if you based on the main bearish trend line (red) to analyse.
From here , you can learn that buying or selling decision falls back on your time horizon.If you are intraday trading, then the breakout of yellow bearish trend line is enough to entice you to get into a buy position.
Orange trend line in the centre shows price action falling back inside, so you may want to wait a while more. You may even want to consider shorting at smaller time frame.
I hope this is useful and the next time you want to ask someone :"Is it time to buy or sell ?" you better think twice.
ความคิดเห็น:
Now, wait for the breakout of 1.94 acting as the resistance level. It has also breakout from the bearish trend line as well
ความคิดเห็น:
1.596 acting as support, 270420 bullish engulfing candle is encouraging and it has now breaks out of the main bearish trend line (red). Aggressive traders can take a long position while those who wants more confirmation can wait for the 2.00 price level to be broken out first.
