NG - Nature Gas might have potential long-term profit 2020-06

(Long) NG - Nature Gas might have potential long-term profit

Natural gas holds a different flair to oil and is the second most traded energy commodity.

As with any energy commodity, demand and supply are key in determining its price.
Here are the factors that impact the supply and demand for natural gas:

1. Seasonal patterns and weather

Demand for natural gas is also seasonal and weather-related.

During cold weather or in the winter season, the demand for natural gas for heating purposes increases and therefore causes an increase in prices.
During hot weather or in the summer season, natural gas can experience a decrease in demand for heating purposes, but this comes with an increase in demand for electricity generation because of the increased use of air conditioners and coolers.

2. Accidents and disasters

Disastrous events that affect the extraction, treatment, distribution, and consumption of natural gas will directly affect the levels of gas supply and demand.

Because of COVID-19 affection, the consumption of natural gas got a significant reduction, so as to the gas price and oil price.
However, It is estimated that with the situation gradually getting better the energy commodity price will recover as well.

3. Downtrend might be turn-over on technical analysis

Nature Gas 30 years supporting line in the historical trading records

In the chart, the daily candle fell below the bottom of the long-term supporting line, which is expected to have powerfully support in the long-term trend.
And we can see that there always are a lot of great buying points after a break of 30 years supporting line in the historical trading records.

However, the recent bounceback should be just a wave of daily corrections in the short term.
The weekly trend should take a few months to bottom out, and it is expected to start to pop out in autumn and winter (refer to Point 1.)


Jimcurry 2020629