NATURAL GAS TO THE MOON OR TO THE HELL? Let's see...

29 ก.ย. 2021

Natural Gas was "pumped a lot those days". What we can expect for the prices in the futures?

Some Historical data

• 2005 NG price rise because of Hurricane Katrina, there was already low supply everywhere before 2005
  
• 2008 NG price rise for.... ??? maybe a big Financial FOMO? Clearly Sp500 seems to confirm this
  
• 2008 OIL prices rise for... ??? maybe market FOMO and happiness? Big demand everywhere?
  
• late 2008 prices dropped even if Hurricane Ike and Gustav damaged Gulf of Mexico. What? Not rise in prices because lower production? Yes...because Oil prices was pumped during the Market FOMO
  
• late 2008 Oil prices dumped following market Real Estate crisis... o yes...funny dump, but why?
  
• late 2008 financial market sell off and big dump
  

SO WHAT?
Simple, Natural Gas dropped because after Hurricane Gustav and Ike there was a rapid recover of production, faster than ever, in Gulf of Mexico
If you believe that there will be a full recover within 6 month... is better to buy stocks or commodities when prices are high or lower? I prefer lower. And seems a lot of investor took this decision. They awaited about 3-6 month for a "full market dump to nice good levels".

In chronological order this happen after 2008 crisis

• Stock market dumped until March 2009
  
• Oil market dumped until March 2009
  
• Natural Gas market dumped until August 2009. Yes August... because Natural Gas cycle fit better on cold months, from September.
  

DID YOU SEE SOME 2021 CORRISPONDENCY?

• 2020-2021 Stock Market pumped to the moon
  
• 2020-2021 Oil Market pumped to the moon (from very low prices)
  
• 2021 Natural Gas Market pumped to the moon
  
• 2021 Hurricane IDA already damaged enough Gulf of Mexico and commodites prices where pumped a lot
  
• 2021 Gulf of mexico recoverd at faster pace than ever from damage
  
• 2021 September China started to sell off their Oil from Guv Reserve
  
• 2021 Hurricane SAM approaching... what will happen? I believe nothing...(Hurricane Forecast here)
  
• Did you expect great gains from your favourite growth firm? I believe no... because of big shortage problems everywhere
  
• On March 2022 did you expect great earnings data of the latest quarter 2021, while everywhere there was shortage problems? (less sell less gains)
  
• Did you expect short term Bull news from China with Evergrande crisis rated CC, and maybe with his dafault on November?
  
• Did you expect short term Bull news from America with Default risk pending and/or debt ceiling over 30 trillion?
  
• Did you expect short term Bull news from UK with Brexit and shortage problems?
  
• Did you expect a BTC and Crypto to the moon meanwhile USDT and Bitfinex CEO just transfered 7000ETH with a DeFi trick Fee (genius) and maybe about 30-70milion dollar pending from worst agreement ever with Evergrande?
  
• Did you expect 100.000 BTC owned by China Gov to stay there, instead to be used to cover government debt? Did you expect that all "stop Cryptocurrency for China" is for nothing?
  
• Did you expect that all big money from crypto will have a "pairing" with real money?
  
• Did you expect a big drop on financial system soon? Will it drop with him also Crypto, Oil, Natural Gas and Gold?
  

I'm waiting:

• Waiting for biggest drop ever seen on an overbought market
  
• Waiting for Sp500 to 1700$ - 2200$ on March 2022
  
• Waiting for UsOil to 35$-50$ March 2022
  
• Waiting for Natural Gas drop to normal levels on August 2022
  
• Waiting for Gold price to 1300$ - 1500$
  
• Waiting for BTC prices between 700$ and 7000$
  

And I will be there, when all market will cry for the worst condition ever... ready to do the only intelligent thing : BUY again.
Because history talk by itself. When FOMO reach the TOP the only direction you can expect is ... to the hell!