Weekly Analyses and Recap: Will the bulls or bears prevail ??

9 ก.ย.

Sep 9 - 13 2024

Welcome Traders to another weekly analyses and recap post.




On Thursday Aug 22nd price signalled a Daily LH at 19,946.6 after which it began to sell. Price has been selling for 2 full weeks now where the Daily HL currently sits at the 61.8% retracement level using my fib tool. Week 3 will be the telltale if price will continue to signal a weekly HL or respect the Daily HL at the 61.8%.

Previously, when the weekly HL was completed on Aug 4th at 17,239.4 price had sold for 3 full weeks. By the end of Week 2 (July 21-28) the Daily HL was sitting at the 78.6% retracement level after which it made a bullish correction. However this correction was short lived because on Tuesday July 30th of Week 3, price respected a level of resistance at 19,236.6 and continued its downtrend breaking below the Daily HL of week 2. This was confirmation that price was not respecting the 78.6% retracement level and would continue to sell until the weekly HL was signalled.

History usually repeats itself and so using that knowledge, for this week I will be watching keenly to see whether price breaks below the low of 18,310.5 from last Friday.

So last Friday Sep 6th, price made an indication - a new low or Daily HL at the 61.8% retracement level using my fib tool.

Price is currently making a bullish correction until it eventually reaches a level of resistance. This resistance level can potential be 19,111.7 - 19,236.6 where price previously respected.

Once price respects a resistance level, it will then make a new low which for me will be the indication on whether price wants to continue bearish for a third week or commence its uptrend. Understand that in any given trend, price must make a series of Highs and Lows but where these highs and lows fall relative to previous will be the indication of which type of trend the market is in.

For an uptrend, price must not break below the low of 18,310.5 from last Friday which will act as a key support. Therefore, a HL will be the indication of a reversal to an uptrend.

For a downtrend, price must respect the resistance level from the previous week (19,111.7 - 19,236.6) and break below 18,310.5 at the close of the previous weekly candle. If a LL forms on the smaller TFs this means that the Daily HL will continue to retrace down to the 78.6% retesting the previous weekly HL. On my chart I have highlighted two TP areas where price can continue to retrace if we get a third week of retracement:
- 17,640.5 which is the 78.6% reracement level on the Daily TF
- 16,807.9 which is not only a retest of the previous weekly HL but also the point at which the monthly HL should signal. If price reaches here, this would mark the first monthly HL since October 2022. (price has essentially been on a strong uptrend for over 2 years).

With that being said, I will not be taking any trades on Sunday and Monday as I will be observing price action accordingly to decipher the trend for the rest of the week.

Happy Trading Everyone.

If you have any questions don't hesitate to ask