ES / MES/ SPX / SPY
My ES, SPX & SPY charts are "busy" with scalp levels (Using MES)
The current short-term H&S pattern has played out, but it's possible we make a neckline around 5000 for a much larger H&S, similar to what we saw in late 2021 into 2022.
IF we form a neckline at 5000 and create a right shoulder (5400ish), and that neckline is later broken the downside target would be 4300ish.
In theory, H&S target is the same distance between the neckline and head. 2022's neckline to peak to trough was almost 1:1; it did miss by a little. Low was 3843 and in theory, should have hit around 3775 (it needed to go 1.7% lower to hit) but that extremely close.
If the labor market weakens further, and we see a mild recession, this wouldn't be far-fetched.
Expected EPS for 2024 = 245
Using a recession multiple of 17/18x P/E and 5% EPS growth vs the 10-15% expected, earnings would be 257ish.
At 4300, and 257 earnings, the P/E would be 16.7x
The current short-term H&S pattern has played out, but it's possible we make a neckline around 5000 for a much larger H&S, similar to what we saw in late 2021 into 2022.
IF we form a neckline at 5000 and create a right shoulder (5400ish), and that neckline is later broken the downside target would be 4300ish.
In theory, H&S target is the same distance between the neckline and head. 2022's neckline to peak to trough was almost 1:1; it did miss by a little. Low was 3843 and in theory, should have hit around 3775 (it needed to go 1.7% lower to hit) but that extremely close.
If the labor market weakens further, and we see a mild recession, this wouldn't be far-fetched.
Expected EPS for 2024 = 245
Using a recession multiple of 17/18x P/E and 5% EPS growth vs the 10-15% expected, earnings would be 257ish.
At 4300, and 257 earnings, the P/E would be 16.7x
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