A pennant to break or a bounce to play?

Looks like a pennant has formed on the 4 hour chart. Will it bounce off the 50 MA and continue to push through the pennant, or will it drop hard and bounce off the bottom of the pennant or the 200 MA. I can't say for sure at this point but I think waiting for a bounce at the bottom at the 200 MA is a more sure bet at this point. There is a lot of downside if this does not find support at the 50 MA. What do you think?