This chart is pretty much self-explanatory and I don't think I have to go too deep into it. While the current level of new homes sold of 600k is normal. A continued deterioration would be of great concern. With sustained higher rates there is a good chance this will trigger a recession signal.
On the flip side, FED PIVITOORS have been wrong that we were/are in a recession. I have been very vocal on that point and rightly so. That does not mean when the facts change that I won't change my mind.
As always I am very cautious as to what I post and strive to give you the best honest analysis I possibly can. Accuracy matters to me. Shotgun predictions accuracy does not interest me at the least.
If I don't talk to you before the holidays. Health and happiness with lots of profits! :)