Google Earnings Analysis: Key Scenarios in Focus 🔑

29 ม.ค.

Ahead of Google's upcoming earnings release tomorrow, we turn our attention to the larger framework of Google's chart. Two key scenarios warrant special attention:

Scenario 1️⃣: Completion of Wave IV
The assumption that Wave IV has already concluded at $83.34 suggests we are currently in the midst of the overarching Wave V. The undergraduate wave cycle is approaching its peak as the completion of wave 5. We expect Wave 5 to either reach its maximum at 100%, i.e., $176.44, or reverse at $155, which is just about $1 above our current price level. Following the conclusion of Wave 5/(1), the onset of a Wave (2) is anticipated, likely correcting between 50% and 78.6% of the previous rise, thus between $120 and $99.

Scenario 2️⃣: Continuation of Wave-IV Correction
Alternatively, we might be in the midst of an extended Wave-IV correction, possibly even an overshooting Wave-B correction. This could move between 100% and 138%. Since the 138% level coincides with the 100% mark of the primary scenario, it could be challenging to make a definitive determination should these levels be reached.

23 ก.พ.

บันทึก

It seems our analysis of Google continues to hold, with the assumption that we are currently in a Wave (2) correction phase being supported. On the day of the Google earnings announcement, we projected the end of Wave (1) through to Wave 5, and since then, we've seen a 6% decline, with today's pre-market also indicating a downturn. Our initial thought is that there must be a three-wave downward movement, characteristic of a correction. Whether this correction takes the form of a zigzag or a flat remains to be determined. We are tentatively predicting a flat correction, as it's the most common type of correction observed.

We will, of course, provide updates as necessary. Regardless, we view a Wave (2) correction between 50% and 78.6% as realistic, given that the Wave 4 level often serves as a turnaround point for Wave 2. This aligns almost perfectly with our 50% retracement at $119. Following this, we anticipate Wave (3) to make a significant upward move. The precise target will be determined once the pivot of Wave (2) is established. Should we drop below the 78.6% level, we could look towards an $83 retracement, or potentially even lower.

29 ก.พ.

บันทึก

We expect it to drop further, believing that the entire cycle, as visible on the 2-hour chart, has concluded. Now, there are two possibilities: either a 5-wave impulse downwards on the short-term chart or a 3-wave impulse downwards, determining if we're dealing with a zigzag correction for the overarching Wave 2, or a Regular or Expanded Flat situation. The Running Flat scenario is considered highly unlikely, hence not anticipated.

Currently, we're witnessing the loss of the support zone, which had held up well previously. There might be a push upwards in the coming weeks, but the extent and structure of the current downward movement will dictate its direction. We'll keep you updated on Google's progress. Nonetheless, we maintain our stance that Google will retrace between 50% and 78.6% before it can ascend further.