Gold $5,000+ in the 2030s to early-2040s
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Repost from XAUUSD:
I believe we will see Gold over $5,000 in the 2030s to early-2040s.
From 1966 to 1980, we saw a bull market in Gold that peaked in 1980; Gold rose over 8x from a price of under $100 to a price of over $800. During that time, the stock market was in a consolidation period or a consolidation rectangle of sideways price action which ended in 1982.
From 1982 to 2000, the stock market was in a bull market and Gold was in a consolidation rectangle of sideways price action which ended in 2001.
From 2001 to 2011, Gold was in a bull market which peaked in 2011 while the stock market was in a consolidation rectangle of sideways price action which ended in 2013. From 2001 to 2011, Gold rose over 7x from a price of around $260 to a price of around $1900.
Here we see three patterns:
The first pattern is that when the stock market is in a bull market, Gold is consolidating, and when the stock market is consolidating, Gold is in a bull market.
The second pattern is that two years after Gold peaks is when the stock market breaks out of its consolidation box and enters a bull market (1982 and 2013); similarly, Gold breaks out of its consolidation rectangle and enters a bull market a year after the stock market peaks. The reason is that the markets were waiting for Gold to break below its 200 day moving average to confirm a bear market in 1982 and 2013; the same reason applies to the start of the Gold bull market in 2001 after the Dow Jones broke below its 200 day moving average, signaling a bear market.
The third pattern is the over 7x - 8x rise of Gold during both Gold bull markets.
Based on these three observations and patterns, we can assume that the next bull market in Gold will occur about a year after the bull market in the stock market ends. When will the stock market bull market end? I believe in the late-2020s to early 2030s, perhaps 2028-2030. No one knows for sure, but if I am correct, that means we could have at least 10 more years of consolidation for Gold. That also means that the next Gold bull market can peak sometime in the mid to late-2030s or even in the early 2040s.
By assuming that Gold will rise at least 7x in the next Gold bull market, based on the recent low of around $1000, we can assume that Gold may surpass $7000 in the next Gold bull market. However, let’s be conservative and say Gold falls below $1000 in the 2020s. Even then, Gold can still fall to $715 and rise to over $5000 in the next Gold bull market, assuming a 7x increase.
To summarize, although Gold is currently in a consolidation period, it will break out into a new bull market when the stock market bull market ends. I am bullish on Gold long-term.
Good luck trading,
Eddy Yang
I believe we will see Gold over $5,000 in the 2030s to early-2040s.
From 1966 to 1980, we saw a bull market in Gold that peaked in 1980; Gold rose over 8x from a price of under $100 to a price of over $800. During that time, the stock market was in a consolidation period or a consolidation rectangle of sideways price action which ended in 1982.
From 1982 to 2000, the stock market was in a bull market and Gold was in a consolidation rectangle of sideways price action which ended in 2001.
From 2001 to 2011, Gold was in a bull market which peaked in 2011 while the stock market was in a consolidation rectangle of sideways price action which ended in 2013. From 2001 to 2011, Gold rose over 7x from a price of around $260 to a price of around $1900.
Here we see three patterns:
The first pattern is that when the stock market is in a bull market, Gold is consolidating, and when the stock market is consolidating, Gold is in a bull market.
The second pattern is that two years after Gold peaks is when the stock market breaks out of its consolidation box and enters a bull market (1982 and 2013); similarly, Gold breaks out of its consolidation rectangle and enters a bull market a year after the stock market peaks. The reason is that the markets were waiting for Gold to break below its 200 day moving average to confirm a bear market in 1982 and 2013; the same reason applies to the start of the Gold bull market in 2001 after the Dow Jones broke below its 200 day moving average, signaling a bear market.
The third pattern is the over 7x - 8x rise of Gold during both Gold bull markets.
Based on these three observations and patterns, we can assume that the next bull market in Gold will occur about a year after the bull market in the stock market ends. When will the stock market bull market end? I believe in the late-2020s to early 2030s, perhaps 2028-2030. No one knows for sure, but if I am correct, that means we could have at least 10 more years of consolidation for Gold. That also means that the next Gold bull market can peak sometime in the mid to late-2030s or even in the early 2040s.
By assuming that Gold will rise at least 7x in the next Gold bull market, based on the recent low of around $1000, we can assume that Gold may surpass $7000 in the next Gold bull market. However, let’s be conservative and say Gold falls below $1000 in the 2020s. Even then, Gold can still fall to $715 and rise to over $5000 in the next Gold bull market, assuming a 7x increase.
To summarize, although Gold is currently in a consolidation period, it will break out into a new bull market when the stock market bull market ends. I am bullish on Gold long-term.
Good luck trading,
Eddy Yang
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Here's the Dow Jones chart for your reference: 
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Here is my video analysis: youtube.com/watch?v=YMbrho-Gaxk&list=PLUIBpHRigzvP1o-CslSgSus1-Wt0MqKjX&index=6คำจำกัดสิทธิ์ความรับผิดชอบ
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