Gold near the ultimate Top / still space for #17 point uptrend

Gold's general commentary: As expected the Hourly 4 chart’s #1,800.80 rejected the Price-action on multiple occasions and the Support zone of #1,800.80 - #1,804.80 haven't been met and so far holds as the strong Support zone on the charts. Gold is not Trading within my projected values but keep in mind that making Medium-term bets on the market is still a bit too early, as my aim was to be sure not to miss a Support break without a position. Hourly 4 chart’s consolidation Rectangle is still active, and with Spinning Top candlestick formation, I doubt I will see quiet a Selling session today, I may have to wait #1 session of ranged or Bullish movements and then downtrend towards the second strong Support of #1,800.80 psychological barrier fractal. Reason is that yesterday’s session speech pushed DX downwards as expected and Bond purchase was mentioned (but had negative outcome for Yield itself) where Yields could finally experience decent gains which will go in favor to my Selling configuration. Expect a Volatile sessions ahead with Higher Low’s test, but on a Medium/Long term, Gold is surely Bearish. Only an Hourly 4 chart candle close below #1,800.80 Support justifies further Selling, while closing above #1,837.80 constitutes further Buying, so be alert. What happens next largely depends also on the anticipation of Yields movement on the Powell’s speech aftermath and is not going in my favor (Bullish Gap fill on Yields which made me enter the market, had no significance on Gold). If #1,827.80 is broken (already is), #1,745.80 is the next extension. Gold is Trading within Channel Up and Selling may be postponed for today’s session. Today’s outlook leans once again to the Bullish side.


Technical analysis: DX again reversed throughout yesterday's session (# -0.37%) and it's no surprise that it is pushing Gold Higher, Buying every dip towards #1,827.80 Resistance zone. No doubt that Gold is also affected by the effect of DX policy remarks, testing the #92.30 Support and correlation standpoint will be visible from today’s U.S. session. Not surprisingly, yesterday’s DX developments, which were later on strongly Sold, had High impact on Gold and pushed it upwards. This tight balance keeps the Hourly 4 chart’s Channel Up valid in High Volatility belt as I am keeping #1,837.80 as next Lower High. I have noted that Gold Traders will witness this Volatility until Fed announcement and then, by my analysis I expect further downturn followed by Lower Low test, as Gold always gives #2 additional Lower Low’s and then prints an healthy rebound. My analysis is based on Spot prices and I can say with certainty that those Gold moves that I am witnessing right now are sign how unstable market has become. While the threat of further Buying on the Weekly timeframe is still there, Swing Traders may be interested in Selling from near May #12 opening level on the Hourly 4 chart configuration. A decisive Hourly 4 chart’s Ultimate Top could be on the cards (entry/risk levels can be decided according to this breakout candle if the variance allows), aligning with Daily fluctuation which should slide Gold Lower from noted Supply - Demand zone, and if E.U. session opens with negative fashion, it has #1,812.80 test ahead on the cards (extended from the previous Low) with #1,800.80 psychological barrier Supporting. Personally, Buying seems strongly limited, but with falling Treasury yields (Bond Yields) near #6-Month Support, Bullish spikes are inevitable. If #1,837.80 breaks (and market closes above), Selling pattern is postponed for another #2 sessions, while #1,812.80 remains first strong Support. Gold is looking vulnerable since there is only #2 Supports towards #1,792.80 Support zone which can shift Gold from Bullish to Bearish on Short-term, while upside has #4 Resistances within #20 points. I will observe how market will digest Powell's speech aftermath comfortably with mini Buying position, as it suggests that Yields may not move as Low as some Investors seem to be betting, which may be bad news for Gold’s Long-term Buyers.


Fundamental analysis: Important session on Gold ahead as it is testing Bullish Lower High trendline, which initially started with the February #24 Higher High (and then made Higher High’s on March #10 and April #14). If today's session Daily chart candle closes below #1,827.80, Gold may start new Bearish pattern that will set the framework for the next few weeks, breaking semi-Support #1,812.80 will be an aggressive decline call towards #1,800.80. The Daily RSI is showing Bearish values, exactly on the level of February #24 - it is best to Trade the direction and not the Overbought sequence solely. Common factor is that after every such Higher High or Lower High rejection, the Price-action always dipped around #37 points. Gold is currently being rejected just above the Lower High trendline of the Daily chart’s Channel Up. Within that Channel, the Price-action always tested Lower levels after the rejection, but assuming no further Fed related news breakout (and DX again without signs of a recovery) Investors are waiting for how market will digest Powell’s speech.


My position: My Selling position got invalidated with an #9 point Stop-loss hit as I treat current Overbought Buying run on Gold as nothing more than Yields Trading on Monthly Low's (without recovery signs, as Fed are in need for Yield on Lower levels), sooner or later Yields will find the Medium-term Support and alter the parabolic decline, which will have Selling impact on Gold. My estimations show that Gold will engage serious decline on the #1,850's test aftermath. I was heavily on Selling side, but constant Low's on Yields are causing Bullish spikes, and current one is enough for me to use it as I engaged my Buying order on #1,827.80, calling for #1,850.80 extension. If #1,850.80 is reached, I will re-Sell towards #1,827.80 first and #1,812.80 in continuation.

ปิดการเทรด ด้วยตนเอง:

I have closed my order on #1,825.80. I will remain without a position for today's session.