Weekly Technical Analysis for Major Currency Pairs, Commodities,

21 ต.ค.

Gold may reach $3,000 per ounce, and it could even surpass $3,500. These predictions have been sweeping across social media recently, driven by rapidly escalating geopolitical and military tensions in the Middle East. In such a charged atmosphere, speculations about the future path of gold and financial markets are increasing.

Are we truly witnessing unexpected historical price surges, or is a sudden drop in prices the more likely scenario for gold? In this comprehensive analysis, we will explore the impact of these developments on financial markets. We present technical, economic, and geopolitical analyses of the major currency pairs, commodities, and indices for the period from Monday, October 21, to Friday, October 25, 2024. Let’s begin the analysis!

Economic and Geopolitical Analysis:

Key Upcoming Events:

This week, we are looking forward to Wednesday, October 23, when the Bank of Canada’s interest rate decision will be announced, followed by the Existing Home Sales report on the U.S. dollar at 5:00 PM. At 5:30 PM, the Crude Oil Inventory report will be released.

On Thursday, we will see important U.S. data, including unemployment claims, the Manufacturing and Services PMI, and the New Home Sales report.
Finally, on Friday, Canada’s Federal Budget Balance will be published.

Geopolitical Tensions:

On the geopolitical side, tensions have escalated to unprecedented levels in the Middle East, with possible imminent military strikes. These tensions could lead to global uncertainty, raising speculation about the potential for a Third World War, especially considering the ongoing conflicts between the Koreas, China and Taiwan, as well as the war between Russia and Ukraine.

Military escalation could benefit gold as a safe haven, along with the U.S. dollar, which is also considered a safe asset, as we saw in previous crises such as the COVID-19 pandemic.

Technical Analysis of Major Currency Pairs, Commodities, and Indices:

1. U.S. Dollar Index (DXY):

The U.S. Dollar Index is regaining positive momentum after surpassing the 102.500 level.

• Bullish outlook: If the price surpasses 104, we could see a rise to 105.400 and then 107.
• Bearish outlook: If it falls below 102.500, the index may retest lower levels.

2. EUR/USD:

The euro is under pressure, with prices remaining below 1.09300.

• Bearish outlook: Breaking below 1.08000 could push the pair down to 1.07000 and 1.06000.
• Bullish outlook: The pair could recover if it reclaims 1.09300.

3. GBP/USD:

The pair is trading near a key pivot point at 1.301500.

• Bullish outlook: A successful breakout above 1.301500 could lead to a rise toward 1.30500 and 1.35000.
• Bearish outlook: Failure to surpass this level could lead to a retreat.

4. USD/JPY:

The pair is approaching the 148 yen level.

• Bullish outlook: Holding above 148 yen supports continued gains.
• Bearish outlook: Breaking this level could lead to a drop toward 144 yen and 140 yen.

5. USD/CHF:

The pair is correcting near 0.8600.

• Bearish outlook: Breaking this support could push the pair down to 0.8500.
• Bullish outlook: Holding above 0.8600 supports continued bullish momentum.

6. AUD/USD:

The pair is declining toward the 0.6750 support level.

• Bearish outlook: Breaking 0.6750 could push the pair toward 0.6600.

7. NZD/USD:

The pair remains under pressure.

• Bearish outlook: Staying below 0.6100 could lead to a decline toward 0.6000.

8. GBP/JPY:

The pair is facing strong resistance at 196 yen.

• Bullish outlook: A breakout above 196 yen could drive the pair toward 200 yen and 205 yen.
• Bearish outlook: Failure to surpass this level may lead to a retreat toward 192 yen.

9. EUR/JPY:

The pair is approaching 162 yen.

• Bearish outlook: Breaking this support could lead to a decline toward 159 yen and 156 yen.

10. EUR/GBP:

The pair remains under pressure.

• Bearish outlook: Breaking 0.8300 could push the pair toward 0.80500.

11. USD/TRY:

The pair remains in an upward trend, with prices holding above 34 lira.

• Bullish outlook: The pair could target 34.50 and 35 lira.

Cryptocurrency Analysis:

1. BTC/USD (Bitcoin):

Bitcoin is attempting to hold above 65,000 dollars.

• Bullish outlook: Holding above this level could push it toward 72,000 and 78,000 dollars.

2. ETH/USD (Ethereum):

Ethereum is maintaining its gains.

• Bullish outlook: Staying above 2600 dollars could push prices to 2800 and 3000 dollars.

3. XRP/USD (Ripple):

Ripple is trading under pressure.

• Bearish outlook: Staying below 55 cents could lead to a drop toward 46 cents and 40 cents.

Commodity Analysis:

1. Gold:

Gold is moving within significant levels, with a potential breakout above 2715 dollars per ounce.

• Bullish outlook: If this breakout is confirmed, we could see levels of 2750 dollars and 2790 dollars.
• Bearish outlook: Failure to break 2715 dollars could lead to corrections toward 2680 dollars.

2. Crude Oil:

Oil is trading near a key support level of 69 dollars per barrel.

• Bearish outlook: Breaking this level could push it toward 64 dollars and 60 dollars.

3. Silver:

Silver is nearing significant gains.

• Bullish outlook: Surpassing 34 dollars could push prices toward 37 dollars.

4. Natural Gas:

Natural gas remains under pressure.

• Bearish outlook: Staying below 2.50 dollars could lead to a decline toward 2 dollars and 1.40 dollars.

Global Indices Analysis:

1. Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA):

Prices are holding above 42,500 points.

• Bullish outlook: Breaking above 43,500 points could push the Dow toward 44,250 and 45,000 points.

2. S&P 500:

Prices are holding above 5820 points.

• Bullish outlook: Surpassing 5900 points supports continued bullish momentum.

3. Nasdaq:

The Nasdaq is trading near 20,400 points.

• Bullish outlook: Breaking this level could push it toward 21,000 and 21,800 points.

4. Russell 2000:

The pair is trading below 2300 points.

• Bearish outlook: Remaining below this level suggests corrections toward 2225 points.

5. FTSE (UK):

Prices are facing resistance at 8400 points.

• Bullish outlook: Breaking this level could push the index toward 8600 and 8800 points.

6. DAX (Germany):

The DAX is holding on to its gains.

• Bullish outlook: Breaking 19,700 points could push the index toward 20,000 and 20,800 points.

7. CAC (France):

Prices are holding above 7600 points.

• Bullish outlook: Continued stability could push the index toward 7900 and 8200 points.

8. Nikkei (Japan):

The Nikkei is hovering near 39,000 points.

• Bearish outlook: Breaking this level could lead to a decline toward 37,636 and 34,400 points.

Conclusion:

In light of the volatile geopolitical situation, we monitor the markets cautiously. Economic data and military tensions will continue to play a significant role in shaping market direction this week.

This analysis has been prepared by Muhammad Qais Abdulghani, a financial markets expert, based on current data and market trends. Please note that all strategies and analyses are subject to market changes, and it is recommended to stay updated with economic developments for informed decision-making.