Gold Creating Bull Trap (XAUUSD)?

With a monthly close around these prices, we'll be breaking the pennant and potentially making a large upmove. What has me cautious is that most indicators are oversold, we could easily reject here and go back to consolidating / retesting the yellow trendline. The MACD has also crossed bearish and we can see the last time this happened we made a move down to restest the trendline. If bullish I would be cautious and at least wait for a monthly close, with inflation so high there is a strong long-term bullish case.