Gold up into the summer
ที่อัปเดต:
Main TREND is DOWN. So every major (weekly) tpo should be considered a golden opportunnity to make money.
From my analysys, there are about 4 weekly trends (on average). Some years more and other less.
I believe we are at the bottom of the second with gold at 1730. It could go lower today or not. We are at a turning point, which means if you long and market goes lower these days, there is a high probability it gowa to higher in comming weeks. But that has to do with everyones startegy of trading and risk and protection.
Two scenarios:
A) Gold moves up till mid August and resumes to lower lows. Target 1820$-1840$
B) Gold gets there, some zig zag but continues to 1880-1910 area until end August, begging September. (about 8-10 weeks from this one). Then another brutal leg down could happen. It could extend a bit on time, but not too much on target, because that area has a lot of resistance.
New lows for sure. Target from the moves, has to be tracked.
I personally bet on the second scenario (B), because it also fits with miners (GDXJ) moves i expect.
Good luck.
Wilco - Bull Black Nova
youtube.com/watch?v=Pi-gwT_biME
From my analysys, there are about 4 weekly trends (on average). Some years more and other less.
I believe we are at the bottom of the second with gold at 1730. It could go lower today or not. We are at a turning point, which means if you long and market goes lower these days, there is a high probability it gowa to higher in comming weeks. But that has to do with everyones startegy of trading and risk and protection.
Two scenarios:
A) Gold moves up till mid August and resumes to lower lows. Target 1820$-1840$
B) Gold gets there, some zig zag but continues to 1880-1910 area until end August, begging September. (about 8-10 weeks from this one). Then another brutal leg down could happen. It could extend a bit on time, but not too much on target, because that area has a lot of resistance.
New lows for sure. Target from the moves, has to be tracked.
I personally bet on the second scenario (B), because it also fits with miners (GDXJ) moves i expect.
Good luck.
Wilco - Bull Black Nova
youtube.com/watch?v=Pi-gwT_biME
บันทึกช่วยจำ
Important low in the sector. Which means the trend is up for weeks. So buying the dip is the best strategy because in the worst case you wont gain as much as you wish, but trend will help youTargets desnñt change too much for now, and gold could make the intermediate top about mid August 1850$-1860$.
I expect the trend to continue into late September, which means a week or two of retracement. Maybe back to 1.780-1790 level, and a final push to 1910$ or so.
So far, the trend is down, which meand that even if gold rises that way, new lows under 1.710$ is a must (according to my metodology). Eeven if it looks like is reversisng to bull, odds are that is "fake" or a strong correction.
Miners confirm the low is in place.
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And one more statistical data. 95% probability that a change in weekly trend will occur from now. That means that the 1.860$ level should be visited next month with that hight probaility also, because the 1820-1830 or lower prices wouldn't be enough.So, lets play the game.
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The diference from yesterday is only 10 $ less as the bottom. So conclussions about price projection are the same. No changes until things begin to move to the upside. And that should happen very soon.บันทึกช่วยจำ
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Then, price could stop rising (fall) for some days, but main DAILY trend still bullish. So If that happens, another good Buy-The-Dip opportunity will come.บันทึกช่วยจำ
Huge gap in futures: 1734$-1750$. But also the difference between cash and futures price has widen to about 15$. I don't remember seeing something similar.Prices would come back to these level, but now, the gap is bullish.
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I expect an intermidate top next Monday 8th or Next Tuesday 9thFutures Gold somewhere between 1820-1840 (cash gold 15$ less)
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Three scenarios:1) Gold back to 1.680 without a lower low, and move up again. Thta would be very bullish, because, it would probably confirm again a change in long term trend from bearish (now) to bullish.
2) Gold goes down under 1.680 to new lows.
3) Gold rests for some days (1.780-1.755) and keeps moving higher in comming days.
My view is the last.
The second has very low probabilites according to history.
And the first too. And would also mean that dollar would reverse going lower (technical) monthly And I don't see that happening soon.
So, my bet is the third scenario.
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There is a very high probability that this leg UP in gold would last until the end of September. That means that at some point it will correct for two or three weeks befores the fina push up. For now. This week is UP and next will begin also up, probably until Wednesday or so. Then it could relax. But all depends on how the move goes.But for me the main point is that even if it correct, it will eventually go higher later during September.
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Could make an intermediate top (a rest) at the end of this week 11-12 August with a target around 1.850 $ (futures). So cash gold could be 1.830$-1840$. But the move up should continue afterwards.บันทึกช่วยจำ
And if that is the case, I also expect gold back to 1780-1790 (futures), before another move up into September
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