GBP/USD at Critical Decision Time

3 เม.ย. 2020

Currently neutral on Cable. Following our necessary 'if then principle' to prepare us for the next move-
Scenario 1. We break the current accumulation phase and fall in which case prepare for a drop to the 50/618 level

Scenario 2. USD weakens, Cable holds the break and heads to the 127 extension. This zone is a key level as it aligns perfectly with a series of weekly Swing lows @ 1.27893 and we all know what this level is right. Dependant on the time it takes to reach this level, we likely would arrive at a test of the upper parallel of the full Bear trend marked by the high's of June '14, April '18 and Jan '20. These are marked lighter as I dont like cluttered charts.

Price is currently holding the median parallel. Time Fibonacci places the potential for a move on Monday 6th April. Stay alert Mon/Tues. NFP may give us further clues as to what to expect for an opening move next week.

Stay Safe everyone- We will all get through this stronger, happier and wiser.

7 เม.ย. 2020

บันทึกช่วยจำ

Note yesterdays drop tagged the lower parallel perfectly @1.21638. Normally with these set ups one expects price to head back into the range and then make the big drop. Im not so sure but open to the option. if we clear the 4 hour range then expect price to make a move towards the upper parallel in the 1.28 range using the 127 as a conservative target. Failure to close above the median line of the range @ 1.23700 can often be a tail of a bearish view. Then of course their is always the 3rd option of the doldrums and sideways chop to yawn through. Trade safe, be safe. Lots of pairs moving around at the moment.

7 เม.ย. 2020

บันทึกช่วยจำ

Clearing the range means one ATR close out of range as my rule.

8 เม.ย. 2020

บันทึกช่วยจำ

Took a short and sweet 75 point long back into the range this am. 4 hour structure still not above the median line. Still waiting for the real set up to emerge.