GBPUSD 17 February 2025 TRADE IDEA

The GBP/USD pair is trading within an ascending channel, forming higher highs and higher lows since 2022. Recently, price bounced off the key support zone around 1.2098 - 1.2036, indicating strong bullish pressure. If this momentum continues, the pair is likely to push towards the 1.3365 - 1.3418 resistance zone, which has historically acted as a major supply area. A confirmed break above this level could open the door for further upside towards 1.3762 - 1.4230, aligning with the channel’s upper boundary. However, if price fails to sustain above 1.3365, a pullback towards the 1.2620 - 1.2500 demand zone is possible before another bullish attempt.

From a Smart Money Concepts (SMC) perspective, a break of structure (BOS) above 1.3000 would reinforce the bullish bias, while recent lows around 1.2098 might have been a liquidity grab before further upside. There is also a Fair Value Gap (FVG) around 1.3000, which price may seek to fill before continuing higher. Currently, GBP/USD remains in a discount zone, favoring bullish continuation towards premium areas near 1.3365 - 1.3762.

Fundamentally, the outlook depends on central bank policies and macroeconomic conditions. The U.S. Federal Reserve's stance on interest rates is a key factor; if the Fed signals rate cuts in 2025, USD weakness could support GBP/USD. However, strong U.S. labor market data and persistent inflation could delay rate cuts, keeping the USD strong. Meanwhile, the Bank of England (BoE) is navigating high inflation and slowing growth. If inflation remains elevated, the BoE may maintain its hawkish stance, which could strengthen GBP. On the geopolitical front, risks such as the Russia-Ukraine war and U.S.-China tensions could drive risk-off sentiment, favoring the USD as a safe haven.

Overall, as long as GBP/USD stays above 1.2620, the bias remains bullish, with upside targets at 1.3000, 1.3365, and 1.3762. A confirmed break above 1.3000 would validate further upside, while failure to hold above 1.3365 could trigger a retracement towards 1.2620 - 1.2500 before another bullish move. Would you like additional trade setups or risk management insights? 🚀