GBPNZD - 4H - Bearish Trend Continuation Strategy

1 ต.ค.

Technical Analysis: GBPNZD is in a strong bearish trend, moving within a bearish channel and consistently closing candles inside the channel. The pair is printing lower lows (LL) and lower highs (LH), reinforcing the downward momentum. With no divergence, the trend looks stable for continuation. We will look to sell at the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level to capitalize on the ongoing bearish trend.

Fundamental Analysis: September is a risk-on environment, and NZD is showing more strength than GBP, which supports the bearish outlook for GBPNZD. NZD remains stronger than GBP in the current market conditions.

Seasonality: GBPNZD tends to be bearish from mid-August to the end of December, with a particularly strong downtrend expected from the last week of September to the first week of October.

Entry Strategy:

Entry Point: Sell at 2.11640, around the 0.5 Fibonacci level.
Stop Loss: Set at 2.12500, above the last lower high (LH) in a good resistance zone.
Take Profit 1: First target at 2.10782.
Take Profit 2: Second target at 2.09922.

This strategy leverages both technical and fundamental factors, with strong seasonality and market sentiment favoring a continued bearish move in GBPNZD. The entry, stop loss, and take profit levels are well-defined for effective risk management and potential gains.