Market Doesn't Fully Expect a Fed Hike Until March 2016

The Fed's statement was simply 'in-line', but that is in-line with a distinctive hawkish view (calling for 2 rate hikes in 2015) from its previous meeting. For most intents and purposes, that is hawkish and thereby Dollar bullish (risk/SPX bearish). Yet, the market remains purposefully aloof. Fed Funds futures are showing liftoff is not 100% expected until the March 2016 meeting. This has the feel of complacency rather than a genuinely critical view of the Fed, and that could mean an inevitable adjustment - further Dollar rally, equity tumble - just when the music forces them to stop.