$FCX: Bullish Reversal Signal with Economic Tailwinds

16 ส.ค.

Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) Analysis: Bullish Signals Amid Economic Shifts 📊🔍
#YUSUKE_ALERT 🏭 FCX: Bullish Momentum Building Alert Details: Option: 08/30/24 45.5C

Yusuke
Aug 16, 2024
Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) Analysis: Bullish Signals Amid Economic Shifts 📊🔍
Recent Price Action 📈
Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) has shown significant bullish momentum, closing at $43.58, up 3.98% in the most recent session. This price action suggests a potential reversal from the recent downtrend, aligning with broader economic indicators.

Thanks for reading Kevin’s Substack! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work.


Subscribed


#YUSUKE_ALERT 🏭 FCX: Bullish Momentum Building

Alert Details:

Option: 08/30/24 45.5C

Ask: 152 contracts @ $0.56 (9K total)

Vol/OI: 301/52 (5.79 ratio)

Time: 08/15/2024 @ 10:15:30am

Technical Analysis:

Daily Chart:

FCX closed at $43.58, up 3.98%

Bounced off support at $40.68 (PT3)

Above 21-day moving average

Next resistance levels: PT1 $45.44, PT2 $46.37, PT3 $48.03

Weekly Chart:

Bullish engulfing candle forming

Key resistances: PT1 $46.37, PT2 $51.03, PT3 $51.97

Monthly Chart:

Long-term uptrend intact

Major resistances: PT1 $51.97, PT2 $53.15, PT3 $55.24


Actionable Signals:

🎯 Entry: Current price ($43.58) or pullback to $42.50

🛑 Stop Loss: Below recent low of $40.68

🚀 Targets:

Short-term: $45.44 (PT1 on daily)

Medium-term: $46.37 (PT2 on daily, PT1 on weekly)

Long-term: $48.03+ (PT3 on daily)

📊 Volume Confirmation: Watch for increased volume to support bullish move

🔍 Key Breakout Level: $45.44 (PT1 on daily) - a break above this level with volume could signal stronger bullish momentum

Risk Management:

Position sizing: Consider limiting risk to 1-2% of trading capital

Scaling: Enter partial positions and add on confirmed breakouts

Trailing stop: Adjust stop loss as price moves in your favor

Remember, this alert shows bullish options activity, but always conduct your own due diligence and consider broader market conditions before trading. The copper market and global economic factors can significantly impact FCX's performance.

Technical Analysis 🔬

Daily Chart
FCX has bounced off the support level around $40.68 (PT3)

Currently trading above its 21-day moving average, indicating short-term bullish momentum

Key resistance levels to watch:

PT1: $45.44

PT2: $46.37

PT3: $48.03



Weekly & Monthly Outlook
Bullish engulfing candle on the weekly timeframe

Long-term upward trend intact on monthly chart

Fundamental Catalysts 🌟
Image
Copper Demand Surge 🚀: Copper prices are at their highest since mid-2022, driven by:

Improving economic conditions in China and the US

Long-term energy transition trends (EVs, renewable energy infrastructure)

Image
Supply Constraints ⛏️: Recent geopolitical issues and mine closures have tightened supply, potentially supporting higher prices

New Indonesian Smelter 🏭: FCX's subsidiary PT-FI has commenced commissioning of its new Manyar smelter, positioning the company for integrated production in Indonesia

Financial Outlook 💰
Q2 2024 sales expected to be lower than initial guidance due to export license delays

Consolidated unit net cash costs for Q2 2024 estimated at $1.77 per pound, up from previous $1.57 estimate

2024 gold sales forecast adjusted to 1.8 million ounces from previous 2.0 million ounces estimate

Full-year 2024 copper volume guidance expected to remain largely unchanged


Economic Conditions & Rate Cut Impact 🌐
As the Federal Reserve contemplates potential rate cuts, FCX could benefit in several ways:

Increased Demand 📈: Lower rates typically stimulate economic activity, potentially boosting demand for copper and other metals

Cheaper Financing 💳: Reduced borrowing costs could support FCX's capital expenditure plans and operational expansion

Currency Effects 💱: If rate cuts weaken the USD, it could make FCX's products more competitive in international markets

Investor Sentiment 🤔: Rate cuts often boost risk appetite, potentially driving more investment into cyclical stocks like FCX

🚨 #YUSUKE_ALERT 🚨
FCX: Bullish Reversal Signal with Economic Tailwinds

Entry: Current price ($43.58) or on a pullback to $42.50

Stop Loss: Below recent low of $40.68

Targets:

$45.44 (short-term)

$46.37 (medium-term)

$48.03 (longer-term)

Actionable Signals:

Break above $45.44 confirms bullish momentum

Watch for increased volume to confirm trend

Monitor copper prices and broader economic indicators


Remember, while the outlook appears positive, always conduct your own due diligence and consider your risk tolerance before making any trading decisions. The interplay between FCX's operational developments, copper market dynamics, and broader economic shifts will be crucial to watch in the coming months. 🔍📊

Thanks for reading Kevin’s Substack! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work.


Subscribed