It seems to me that the chance of a fed hike is priced in. Despite all the data - we have not pushed back through 1.0820. There is support below. On several occasions we have failed to take out clusters of net sell stops situated right below 1.08 under heavy selling volume. There must be some real demand for euros at the 1.08 right now. With all the shorts piled in here we could see a rip back to the top of the range.
There are some other subtle signs that the dollar may be ready to cool off. Despite WTI and Brent making new lows this week, the dollar failed to make new highs against a range of oil correlated pairs. The real give away for me was USDCAD. I'm buying dips in the EURUSD and trading the range between major data releases.
There are some other subtle signs that the dollar may be ready to cool off. Despite WTI and Brent making new lows this week, the dollar failed to make new highs against a range of oil correlated pairs. The real give away for me was USDCAD. I'm buying dips in the EURUSD and trading the range between major data releases.