Interesting PA seen on EUR/USD this morning...
Monthly timeframe:
Outlook brought forward from previous analysis –
Despite a healthy attempt at recovery from demand at 1.0488/1.0912 in October 2019 – a particularly noteworthy area given the momentum derived from its base – EUR/USD failed to sustain gains, and had the unit retesting its upper boundary last week. Price, however, as you can see, has begun to tunnel its way deeper into the range this week.
Although down 2.74% on the month and in-line with the primary downtrend, which has been lower since 2008, we cannot rule out the possibility of fresh upside attempts from current demand.
Additional structure worth noting on the monthly timeframe is demand-turned supply at 1.1857/1.1352, a long-term trendline resistance (1.6038) and a reasonably ‘fresh’ demand area coming in at 0.9581/1.0221. Note this area boasts history dating back as far as 2003.
Daily timeframe:
Partially altered outlook from previous analysis –
Since retesting supply at 1.1117/1.1078, the unit has retained a strong underlying offer, consuming a demand zone at 1.1001/1.0946, dethroning the 1.0879 October 1st low and recently getting to know demand at 1.0680/1.0781. This area, formed April 2017, also houses a 127.2% Fibonacci ext. point within at 1.0724. Although this is an area buyers may find appealing, Thursday finished in the shape of a daily bearish outside pattern consequently suggesting sellers may look to strengthen their grip further here.
The RSI indicator remains pretty much unchanged, seen attempting a recovery from channel support, though still remains within its oversold range at 23.09.
H4 timeframe:
Thursday’s report informed readers price recently bottomed a few points ahead of supply-turned demand drawn from 1.0738/1.0774, snapping a five-day losing streak. The piece also underscored supply areas in view at 1.0838/1.0823 (yellow), glued to the lower boundary of a larger demand-turned supply at 1.0832/1.0877. The yellow zone marks a decision point to press lower, and welcomed a near-test of the area yesterday, before swinging back to the lower edge of the day’s range.
H1 timeframe:
Intraday action for EUR/USD staged a mini-revival to reclaim 1.08 in early US trade, though sentiment remained moderately negative, victim to a resilient US dollar index. In terms of the ECB minutes, little in the way of fresh insight was seen.
Technical developments reveal the pair topped a few points ahead of familiar supply at 1.0837/1.0824 (essentially the same as current H4 supply), garnering resistance off the 100-period SMA. 1.08 gave way in the later hours of US trade, potentially exposing demand at 1.0682/1.0700.
Direction:
The primary trend in this market has faced south since 2008; monthly demand at 1.0488/1.0912 shows signs of weakening, and daily price recently pencilled in a bearish outside day around the top edge of demand at 1.0680/1.0781. This, alongside H1 price languishing south of 1.08 with room to press as far south as demand at 1.0682/1.0700, could be sufficient to entice further selling today, and next week.
Intraday traders likely have their crosshairs fixed at the 1.08 boundary for potential bearish themes.
Outlook brought forward from previous analysis –
Despite a healthy attempt at recovery from demand at 1.0488/1.0912 in October 2019 – a particularly noteworthy area given the momentum derived from its base – EUR/USD failed to sustain gains, and had the unit retesting its upper boundary last week. Price, however, as you can see, has begun to tunnel its way deeper into the range this week.
Although down 2.74% on the month and in-line with the primary downtrend, which has been lower since 2008, we cannot rule out the possibility of fresh upside attempts from current demand.
Additional structure worth noting on the monthly timeframe is demand-turned supply at 1.1857/1.1352, a long-term trendline resistance (1.6038) and a reasonably ‘fresh’ demand area coming in at 0.9581/1.0221. Note this area boasts history dating back as far as 2003.
Daily timeframe:
Partially altered outlook from previous analysis –
Since retesting supply at 1.1117/1.1078, the unit has retained a strong underlying offer, consuming a demand zone at 1.1001/1.0946, dethroning the 1.0879 October 1st low and recently getting to know demand at 1.0680/1.0781. This area, formed April 2017, also houses a 127.2% Fibonacci ext. point within at 1.0724. Although this is an area buyers may find appealing, Thursday finished in the shape of a daily bearish outside pattern consequently suggesting sellers may look to strengthen their grip further here.
The RSI indicator remains pretty much unchanged, seen attempting a recovery from channel support, though still remains within its oversold range at 23.09.
H4 timeframe:
Thursday’s report informed readers price recently bottomed a few points ahead of supply-turned demand drawn from 1.0738/1.0774, snapping a five-day losing streak. The piece also underscored supply areas in view at 1.0838/1.0823 (yellow), glued to the lower boundary of a larger demand-turned supply at 1.0832/1.0877. The yellow zone marks a decision point to press lower, and welcomed a near-test of the area yesterday, before swinging back to the lower edge of the day’s range.
H1 timeframe:
Intraday action for EUR/USD staged a mini-revival to reclaim 1.08 in early US trade, though sentiment remained moderately negative, victim to a resilient US dollar index. In terms of the ECB minutes, little in the way of fresh insight was seen.
Technical developments reveal the pair topped a few points ahead of familiar supply at 1.0837/1.0824 (essentially the same as current H4 supply), garnering resistance off the 100-period SMA. 1.08 gave way in the later hours of US trade, potentially exposing demand at 1.0682/1.0700.
Direction:
The primary trend in this market has faced south since 2008; monthly demand at 1.0488/1.0912 shows signs of weakening, and daily price recently pencilled in a bearish outside day around the top edge of demand at 1.0680/1.0781. This, alongside H1 price languishing south of 1.08 with room to press as far south as demand at 1.0682/1.0700, could be sufficient to entice further selling today, and next week.
Intraday traders likely have their crosshairs fixed at the 1.08 boundary for potential bearish themes.
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