EUR/USD Forecast: Pressure from Diverging Monetary Policy
The EUR/USD pair has found temporary support after dropping near 1.0220, the lowest level seen in over two years. However, I believe this major currency pair may continue to decline toward parity due to the stark differences in the monetary policy outlooks of the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the European Central Bank (ECB).
On the other side of the Atlantic, Fed officials have signaled that they will cut rates less aggressively in 2025, which supports the strength of the US dollar. Meanwhile, ECB policymakers foresee the continuation of the current pace of monetary easing, which places pressure on the euro and hinders its ability to maintain upward momentum.
With resistance levels at 1.0367 and 1.0417, it seems unlikely that the EUR/USD pair will break through these levels and maintain growth. Instead, it is more likely that the pair will reverse and test the support level at 1.0259, with the potential to break this support and continue falling below the 1.0200 level. Investors need to closely monitor the impact of the monetary policy actions from both the Fed and ECB in the coming months to adjust their strategies accordingly.
On the other side of the Atlantic, Fed officials have signaled that they will cut rates less aggressively in 2025, which supports the strength of the US dollar. Meanwhile, ECB policymakers foresee the continuation of the current pace of monetary easing, which places pressure on the euro and hinders its ability to maintain upward momentum.
With resistance levels at 1.0367 and 1.0417, it seems unlikely that the EUR/USD pair will break through these levels and maintain growth. Instead, it is more likely that the pair will reverse and test the support level at 1.0259, with the potential to break this support and continue falling below the 1.0200 level. Investors need to closely monitor the impact of the monetary policy actions from both the Fed and ECB in the coming months to adjust their strategies accordingly.
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