Is the Euro finally seeing some relief? - EURUSD

12 ก.ย. 2022

The overnight Asian and European session showed us over 150 pips of Euro strength testing mid-August highs near the 1.02 area where a daily, down-sloping trend line held price there. Economic consideration surrounding the pair focuses mainly on continued Ukrainian war small successes which lessen the fears of a previously pending European energy disaster. A Kremlin spokesperson recently stated that there is no intention of stopping the "special operation" as well as no prospects for talks at this point. A close eye on the upcoming September 25th Italian election where the right-wing Brothers of Italy party is likely to win and stands chance of a super-majority in both the upper and lower houses. A strong win would allow them the ability to alter Italy's constitution.

From a technical perspective, a 2 hour channel and support around the 1.008 area should likely hold this new found strength. I believe we likely see 1.02 again although I would not be surprised to see a test of 1.008 support first which gives us a nice entry point. A break above 1.02 likely brings easy movement to the 1.025 area and further 1.032 zone. Another break and hold above the daily down-sloping trend line brings about a more bullish higher time frame stance on the pair.

Overall, I'm more bullish on the short term while remaining more neutral looking longer.