EUR/USD FIST Update - June 28
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TECHNICALS
The EURUSD pair broke below a long-term trendline on the daily chart following the FOMC meeting, with the correction losing steam at the broken trendline, which now acts as resistance.
The 1-hour chart shows a push below a short-term trendline in a pattern that resembles a bearish wedge, signaling further weakness.
Volume:
The daily bars that form that corrective move occurred on lower volume. The strong bearish candlestick on the 1-hour chart that formed today (high volume), as well as the following bullish 1-hour candlesticks (high volume but weak movement) are a bearish signal for the pair.
Levels to follow (Liquidity):
Important resistance: 1.1975 (last week's high)
Important support: 1.1900 (daily low and round-number support)
FUNDAMENTALS:
Latest Headlines:
USD News:
US Dollar Index looks for direction around 91.80
Fed's Rosengren: You don't want too much exuberance in the housing market
US air strikes against Iran-backed militia in Syria and Iraq
EUR News:
ECB's Holzmann: PEPP will end when virus emergency is over
ECB's Holzmann: We don't know yet what price path will bring
EUR/USD stays consolidative near 1.1940
Resistance at 1.1998/1.2007 to cap for a move back to 1.1847/24 – Credit Suisse
Risk of second-round inflation effects remains limited
Upcoming Market Reports:
Here are the most important market reports for EUR/USD to follow in the coming days:
Tuesday at 07:03 (GMT): EUR Italian Bank Holiday
Tuesday at 14:00 (GMT): USD CB Consumer Confidence (Expected: 118.9, Previous: 117.2)
Wednesday at 09:00 (GMT): EUR CPI Flash Estimate y/y (Expected: 1.9%, Previous: 2.0%)
Wednesday at 12:15 (GMT): USD ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (Expected: 555K, Previous: 978K)
Wednesday at 13:45 (GMT): USD Chicago PMI (Expected: 70.2, Previous: 75.2)
Wednesday at 14:00 (GMT): USD Pending Home Sales m/m (Expected: -1.1%, Previous: -4.4%)
Wednesday at 14:30 (GMT): USD Crude Oil Inventories (Expected: , Previous: -7.6M)
INTERMARKET:
Yield differentials in the short-term: Bearish
== SUMMARY ==
Fundamentals and technicals point at further weakness in EURUSD. We remain bearish on the pair.
TECHNICALS
The EURUSD pair broke below a long-term trendline on the daily chart following the FOMC meeting, with the correction losing steam at the broken trendline, which now acts as resistance.
The 1-hour chart shows a push below a short-term trendline in a pattern that resembles a bearish wedge, signaling further weakness.
Volume:
The daily bars that form that corrective move occurred on lower volume. The strong bearish candlestick on the 1-hour chart that formed today (high volume), as well as the following bullish 1-hour candlesticks (high volume but weak movement) are a bearish signal for the pair.
Levels to follow (Liquidity):
Important resistance: 1.1975 (last week's high)
Important support: 1.1900 (daily low and round-number support)
FUNDAMENTALS:
Latest Headlines:
USD News:
US Dollar Index looks for direction around 91.80
Fed's Rosengren: You don't want too much exuberance in the housing market
US air strikes against Iran-backed militia in Syria and Iraq
EUR News:
ECB's Holzmann: PEPP will end when virus emergency is over
ECB's Holzmann: We don't know yet what price path will bring
EUR/USD stays consolidative near 1.1940
Resistance at 1.1998/1.2007 to cap for a move back to 1.1847/24 – Credit Suisse
Risk of second-round inflation effects remains limited
Upcoming Market Reports:
Here are the most important market reports for EUR/USD to follow in the coming days:
Tuesday at 07:03 (GMT): EUR Italian Bank Holiday
Tuesday at 14:00 (GMT): USD CB Consumer Confidence (Expected: 118.9, Previous: 117.2)
Wednesday at 09:00 (GMT): EUR CPI Flash Estimate y/y (Expected: 1.9%, Previous: 2.0%)
Wednesday at 12:15 (GMT): USD ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (Expected: 555K, Previous: 978K)
Wednesday at 13:45 (GMT): USD Chicago PMI (Expected: 70.2, Previous: 75.2)
Wednesday at 14:00 (GMT): USD Pending Home Sales m/m (Expected: -1.1%, Previous: -4.4%)
Wednesday at 14:30 (GMT): USD Crude Oil Inventories (Expected: , Previous: -7.6M)
INTERMARKET:
Yield differentials in the short-term: Bearish
== SUMMARY ==
Fundamentals and technicals point at further weakness in EURUSD. We remain bearish on the pair.
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