EURUSD FORECAST 29TH MARCH 2023

EUR/USD Bulls to Target $1.0850 on German Consumer Confidence

It is a relatively busy day for the EUR/USD, with German and French consumer confidence and ECB commentary to draw interest.

The EUR/USD needs to avoid the $1.0829 pivot to target the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $1.0862. A move through the Tuesday high of $1.08485 would signal a bullish session. However, the EUR/USD needs hawkish ECB chatter and better-than-expected consumer confidence numbers to support a breakout session.

In the case of an extended rally, the bulls will likely test the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $1.0882 and resistance at $1.09. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $1.0936.

A fall through the pivot would bring the First Major Support Level (S1) at $1.0809 into play. However, barring a data-fueled sell-off, the EUR/USD pair should avoid sub-$1.075. The Second Major Support Level (S2) at $1.0775 should limit the downside. The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $1.0721.

Looking at the EMAs and the 4-hourly chart, the EMAs send bullish signals. The EUR/USD sits above the 50-day EMA ($1.07746). The 50-day EMA pulled away from the 100-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA widening from the 200-day EMA, delivering bullish signals.

A hold above the Major Support Levels and the 50-day EMA ($1.07746) would support a breakout from R1 ($1.0862) to give the bulls a run at R2 ($1.0882) and $1.09. However, a fall through S1 ($1.0809) would bring S2 ($1.0775) and the 50-day EMA ($1.07746) into play. A fall through the 50-day EMA would send a bearish signal.

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