Bearish technical setup in the EUR/USD
EURUSD Technical Overview:
Pivot: 1.1670
Key Resistance: 1.1645 - 1.1670 - 1.1698 - 1.1720 - 1.15-735
Key Support: 1.1620 - 1.1598 - 1.1584 - 1.1565 - 1.1535
Day Trading Range: 1.1545 - 1.1655
Technical Indicator:
RSI: RSI lacks bullish divergence, moving under oversold condition.
Moving Average: CMP 1.1622 Price is moving under Simple moving average 200 & 55, its sign of bearish trend more.
Technical Trade Idea:
Most Likely Scenario: short positions below 1.1670 with targets at 1.1618 & 1.1584 in extension.
Alternative scenario: above 1.1670 look for further upside with 1.1698 & 1.1728 as targets.
Fundamental:
The yield spread does spike, then the markets may not pay much attention to the preliminary Eurozone CPI, scheduled for release at 09:00 GMT. Meanwhile on the other side of Atlantic, US markets will see the release of core-PCE price index, the Fed’s favorite gauge of inflation, from the U.S. At the moment, the pair is testing the critical 1.1640 support.the spread between the 10-year Italian government bond yield and its German counterpart could spike, bolstering the already bearish technical setup in the EUR/USD.
Analysts believe that USD has fundamental support for continued growth from local market in near future as they believe that Chairman Powell’s comment in his recent speech that “The U.S. economy is in a particularly good spot” is based on and supported by fact that despite the August pause the six months to July saw the strongest investment spending in five years as event from macro data history and when looking at USD’s price action in broad market and recent positive outcome of durable goods orders and excellent business spending, Dollar could find stable bullish influence from American markets alone rather than be moved based on geo-political events. Meanwhile, Italy’s Deputy Prime Minister Salvini announced that the Italian government agreed on a 2019 budget deficit target at 2.4% of the GDP, for the next three years, defying Brussels ‘s demands that Italy cut the fiscal deficit to address its high debt.
Italian headlines are a primary driver for EUR confidence heading into the weekend, with the Italian government set to overreach on deficit spending, and trading desks will be keeping an eye out for further headlines as the Italian government and the EU are set for a continued fight over fiscal policy, with a healthy smattering of mid- to low-tier economic data on the docket for the morning, with top-tier preliminary European CPI figures due at 09:00 GMT, and the annualized figure into September is expected to print at 2.1%, a minor uptick from the previous reading of 2.0%, and a missed inflation report here could easily see the EUR/USD continue sliding.
Thanks
YoCryptoManic
Pivot: 1.1670
Key Resistance: 1.1645 - 1.1670 - 1.1698 - 1.1720 - 1.15-735
Key Support: 1.1620 - 1.1598 - 1.1584 - 1.1565 - 1.1535
Day Trading Range: 1.1545 - 1.1655
Technical Indicator:
RSI: RSI lacks bullish divergence, moving under oversold condition.
Moving Average: CMP 1.1622 Price is moving under Simple moving average 200 & 55, its sign of bearish trend more.
Technical Trade Idea:
Most Likely Scenario: short positions below 1.1670 with targets at 1.1618 & 1.1584 in extension.
Alternative scenario: above 1.1670 look for further upside with 1.1698 & 1.1728 as targets.
Fundamental:
The yield spread does spike, then the markets may not pay much attention to the preliminary Eurozone CPI, scheduled for release at 09:00 GMT. Meanwhile on the other side of Atlantic, US markets will see the release of core-PCE price index, the Fed’s favorite gauge of inflation, from the U.S. At the moment, the pair is testing the critical 1.1640 support.the spread between the 10-year Italian government bond yield and its German counterpart could spike, bolstering the already bearish technical setup in the EUR/USD.
Analysts believe that USD has fundamental support for continued growth from local market in near future as they believe that Chairman Powell’s comment in his recent speech that “The U.S. economy is in a particularly good spot” is based on and supported by fact that despite the August pause the six months to July saw the strongest investment spending in five years as event from macro data history and when looking at USD’s price action in broad market and recent positive outcome of durable goods orders and excellent business spending, Dollar could find stable bullish influence from American markets alone rather than be moved based on geo-political events. Meanwhile, Italy’s Deputy Prime Minister Salvini announced that the Italian government agreed on a 2019 budget deficit target at 2.4% of the GDP, for the next three years, defying Brussels ‘s demands that Italy cut the fiscal deficit to address its high debt.
Italian headlines are a primary driver for EUR confidence heading into the weekend, with the Italian government set to overreach on deficit spending, and trading desks will be keeping an eye out for further headlines as the Italian government and the EU are set for a continued fight over fiscal policy, with a healthy smattering of mid- to low-tier economic data on the docket for the morning, with top-tier preliminary European CPI figures due at 09:00 GMT, and the annualized figure into September is expected to print at 2.1%, a minor uptick from the previous reading of 2.0%, and a missed inflation report here could easily see the EUR/USD continue sliding.
Thanks
YoCryptoManic
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