The euro could attempt to recoup some of the recent losses against some of its peers, thanks to the European Central Bank’s (ECB) hawkish hike, oversold conditions, and a spate of underwhelming Euro area macro data. However, still-elevated speculative long EUR positioning could limit the gains.
EUR has rebounded against the US dollar, but has continued to soften against the Australian dollar and the British pound, as forecast in the previous update – see “Ahead of Euro Area Inflation: EUR/USD, EUR/GBP, EUR/AUD Price Setups,” published May 30.
The ECB raised interest rates by 25 basis points last week to the highest level in 22 years and signaled more rate hikes in coming months. Back in May, the mention that the tightening of financial conditions is “forcefully” trickling through the economy gave an impression that ECB could be nearing a pause in its tightening campaign. However, ECB President Christine Lagarde’s remarks last week that the central bank has still ground to cover indicates the ECB is in no mood to pause just yet, aiding EUR.